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Graham Stephan: Inflation will fall

Said on May 17, 2021, at 10:21 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“by the end of the year the prices of things will start to come back down personally I believe the latter”
Watch at 10:21The Stock Market Just Flipped
PredictionInflationwill fallby Dec 31, 2021
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

5%

May 17, 2021

Reading at close

8.54%

May 17, 2022

Change

+3.54 pp

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 8.54% at May 17, 2022, a change of +3.54 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201820192020202020212022Said on May 17, 2021
−5%0%5%10%2018201920212022Said on May 17, 2021

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band5%5.35%Jun 16, 2021+0.35 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band5%5.13%Aug 15, 2021+0.14 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect5%6.93%Nov 13, 2021+1.93 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect5%8.54%May 17, 2022+3.54 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct5%3.27%May 16, 2024−1.72 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct5%4.18%May 16, 2026−0.82 pp—
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect5%7.04%Dec 31, 2021+2.04 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 5.35% at Jun 16, 2021, a change of +0.35 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 5.13% at Aug 15, 2021, a change of +0.14 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 6.93% at Nov 13, 2021, a change of +1.93 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 8.54% at May 17, 2022, a change of +3.54 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 3.27% at May 16, 2024, a change of −1.72 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.18% at May 16, 2026, a change of −0.82 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: Stated deadline

Inflation stood at 5.00% at the start of the window and 7.04% at Dec 31, 2021, a change of +2.04 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

look bad in the short term ter but they've also made it clear they're not going to raise interest rates without seeing it actually become a persistent issue first which is really not something we're going to know about until probably later this year as for this month though we knew what was going to happen we were told what to expect but the markets were going to react negatively anyway and the question now really becomes do you think inflation is going to be a persistent issue and the FED is wrong or do you think the market is overreacting and by the end of the year the prices of things will start to come back down personally I believe the latter I've made so many videos explaining that this was going to come and now I see this as a good opportunity to buy into the markets get everything in a bit of a discount and then I could just hold everything to see what happens even if the market continues to go down and this last Friday was really a perfect example of why you can't time the markets because out of nowhere for no reason at all the markets rallied to their best day since March if you had otherwise sold or decided not to invest back in as the markets were dropping you would potentially

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed