Graham Stephan: Inflation will rise

Said on Nov 1, 2019, at 6:06 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“we're more likely to see higher inflation because more money is flowing into the economy”
Watch at 6:06Robinhood just sent me this..
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

2%

Nov 1, 2019

Reading at close

1.19%

Oct 31, 2020

Change

−0.81 pp

Inflation stood at 2.00% at the start of the window and 1.19% at Oct 31, 2020, a change of −0.81 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%1%2%3%4%201620172018201920202021Said on Nov 1, 2019
0%1%2%3%4%2016201820192021Said on Nov 1, 2019

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2%2.28%Dec 1, 2019+0.28 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2%2.43%Jan 30, 2020+0.43 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect2%0.37%Apr 29, 2020−1.63 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect2%1.19%Oct 31, 2020−0.81 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2%7.71%Oct 31, 2022+5.71 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2%2.55%Oct 30, 2024+0.55 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 2.00% at the start of the window and 2.28% at Dec 1, 2019, a change of +0.28 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 2.00% at the start of the window and 2.43% at Jan 30, 2020, a change of +0.43 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 2.00% at the start of the window and 0.37% at Apr 29, 2020, a change of −1.63 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 2.00% at the start of the window and 1.19% at Oct 31, 2020, a change of −0.81 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 2.00% at the start of the window and 7.71% at Oct 31, 2022, a change of +5.71 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Inflation stood at 2.00% at the start of the window and 2.55% at Oct 30, 2024, a change of +0.55 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

for the entire economy because as people start spending more money businesses tend to do a little bit better as well which means the stock prices start going up and the party can just continue really late at night until our neighbors start complaining it also does another very interesting thing and some of this is my own bro theory here but just hear me out on this when the Fed lowers interest rates it starts to make saving money a little bit less appealing because you're saved money is now earning a little bit less than it once did it also means that we're more likely to see higher inflation because more money is flowing into the economy and that further makes your saved money worth just a little bit less this means that all the people sitting on the sidelines is holding cash waiting for the economy to dip in price will not only now earn less money on that savings but also potentially have that savings are rode away due to inflation lowering the purchasing power of their money this would incentivize more people to instead go and invest their money put in the markets put it in stocks which again would further boost the economy just think about it for a second if I have a mill a dollar

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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