Graham Stephan: Inflation — around 1.76%

Said on Dec 16, 2019, at 10:52 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“it's likely that there will be years where inflation is above 1.76 percent where in a way it's almost as though the banks will be paying me to borrow money from them to go and invest back into real estate”
Watch at 10:52How I Borrow FREE Money
PredictionInflation— around 1.76%Checked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 2.3% year on year in Dec 2019 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 1.8%.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−1%0%1%2%3%4%5%201720172018201920202021Said on Dec 16, 2019
−2%0%2%4%6%2017201820192021Said on Dec 16, 2019

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 2.3% year on year in Dec 2019 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 1.8%.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 2.3% year on year in Dec 2019 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 1.8%.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 2.3% year on year in Dec 2019 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 1.8%.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 2.3% year on year in Dec 2019 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 1.8%.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 2.3% year on year in Dec 2019 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 1.8%.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: target already reached. Inflation stood at 2.3% year on year in Dec 2019 (CPIAUCSL, first releases), already at or above the target recorded for this call, 1.8%.

What was said around it

effectively like I'm only paying half of that after taxes or 1.7 6% in interest net out-of-pocket at the end of the day then that amount is also lowered by inflation because every year my outstanding loan balance becomes easier to pay off with future money that's worth less like if you go and look this year that inflation was 1.76 percent that means when you factor in inflation and tax write-offs it's like I'm getting loaned money for 30 years for a completely free adjusted for inflation not to mention it's likely that there will be years where inflation is above 1.76 percent where in a way it's almost as though the banks will be paying me to borrow money from them to go and invest back into real estate so in this case it makes absolutely no sense for me to try to pay off early because if I did I would be losing money not to mention a few other major disadvantages first if I paid for any my properties outright or I decided to go and pay off the current mortgages that I have I would be tying up a lot of money in one place meaning I couldn't use that towards any other investments out there and that's what's known as an opportunity cost that is when you have the opportunity to go and invest your

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