Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Graham Stephan: Inflation will rise

Said on Nov 18, 2022, at 6:03 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“shelter will continue to put upward pressure on the overall inflation through the first half of 2023.”
Watch at 6:03It’s Over: The Housing Market Just Collapsed
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

6.98%

Nov 18, 2022

Reading at close

3.21%

Nov 18, 2023

Change

−3.77 pp

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 3.21% at Nov 18, 2023, a change of −3.77 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220232024Said on Nov 18, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202120222024Said on Nov 18, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.98%6.4%Dec 18, 2022−0.59 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.98%6.15%Feb 16, 2023−0.84 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.98%4.06%May 17, 2023−2.93 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.98%3.21%Nov 18, 2023−3.77 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.98%2.71%Nov 17, 2025−4.27 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Nov 17, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 6.40% at Dec 18, 2022, a change of −0.59 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 6.15% at Feb 16, 2023, a change of −0.84 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 4.06% at May 17, 2023, a change of −2.93 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 3.21% at Nov 18, 2023, a change of −3.77 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 6.98% at the start of the window and 2.71% at Nov 17, 2025, a change of −4.27 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 17, 2027.

What was said around it

hikes we're likely to see and then hopefully my YOLO stocks will finally go up in price of course not everyone agrees with Moody's Analytics forecasting that rents will increase another five to seven percent throughout 2023 will the FED of Dallas believes that rents will increase another 8.4 percent which objectively is already looking like it's not going to probably pan out so take all of that with a grain of salt the bad news for all of this as far as inflation is concerned is that CPI usually lags this data by four quarters which suggests that shelter will continue to put upward pressure on the overall inflation through the first half of 2023. after all tenants usually sign a one-year lease and it takes those full 12 months for a new price to be reflected although in terms of who could charge rent one proposal wants to fight back against the rich greedy corporate landlords and something that would quite literally stop them in their tracks and that's what brings us to the stop Wall Street landlords Act of 2022. this bill is based on the fact that a third of Americans are renting their home while 25 percent of single-family residences were bought by a corporate entity which by the way

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed