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Graham Stephan: SPY will fall

Said on Apr 8, 2020, at 11:09 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I would not be surprised if things continue to get worse and the markets continue dropping further”
Watch at 11:09The Bull Market Of 2020 | Did We Miss The Stock Market Bottom?
PredictionSPYwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the markets, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$278.20

Apr 9, 2020

Price at close

$408.52

Apr 8, 2021

Total return, dividends included

+49.2%

SPY closed at $278.20 on Apr 9, 2020. On Apr 8, 2021 it closed at $408.52, a total return of +49.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$200$250$300$350$400$450Oct 2019Feb 2020Jun 2020Oct 2020Feb 2021Jun 2021Said on Apr 8, 2020
$200$300$400$500Oct 2019May 2020Nov 2020Jun 2021Said on Apr 8, 2020

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$278.20Apr 9, 2020$292.44May 8, 2020+5.1%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$278.20Apr 9, 2020$313.78Jul 7, 2020+13.3%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$278.20Apr 9, 2020$339.76Oct 5, 2020+23.2%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$278.20Apr 9, 2020$408.52Apr 8, 2021+49.2%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$278.20Apr 9, 2020$409.19Apr 6, 2023+54.0%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$278.20Apr 9, 2020$504.38Apr 7, 2025+95.0%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $278.20 on Apr 9, 2020. On May 8, 2020 it closed at $292.44, a total return of +5.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $278.20 on Apr 9, 2020. On Jul 7, 2020 it closed at $313.78, a total return of +13.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $278.20 on Apr 9, 2020. On Oct 5, 2020 it closed at $339.76, a total return of +23.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $278.20 on Apr 9, 2020. On Apr 8, 2021 it closed at $408.52, a total return of +49.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $278.20 on Apr 9, 2020. On Apr 6, 2023 it closed at $409.19, a total return of +54.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $278.20 on Apr 9, 2020. On Apr 7, 2025 it closed at $504.38, a total return of +95.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

What was said around it

not to say that we can't look at the economic data try to analyze it and then come to a reasonable and logical conclusion but at the end of the day we have no idea how the markets are going to react and at which point we begin going back up like if I were to guess and just trust me guys like this is just a pure guess I would say we probably go up and down in price within about a 10 percent range over the next few weeks or a few months and then slowly we'll begin moving back up with more Green Day's than red but again that's just a total guess and I would not be surprised if things continue to get worse and the markets continue dropping further until then I have a feeling we're gonna probably see a lot more volatility a lot more unemployment a lot of businesses shutting down and things on paper looking worse but I think long term it's going to cause a lot of businesses to restructure how they operate it's gonna leave way more room for error and I have a feeling a lot of people are gonna find that they're way more productive working at home than they are going into an office and from there I believe that for a long-term investor as in you don't need this money for the next five to 15 years

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days−1.6%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%