Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Coin Bureau: Inflation will fall

Said on Jun 9, 2022, at 10:33 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“as it so happens the last pce print suggests that inflation could be peaking and this will probably be confirmed by future inflation prints be they from the pce or cpi”
Watch at 10:33WATCH OUT For These!! Macro Factors Driving Crypto Markets!! 📈
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.98%

Jun 9, 2022

Reading at close

2.88%

Jun 9, 2023

Change

−6.10 pp

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 2.88% at Jun 9, 2023, a change of −6.10 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220222023Said on Jun 9, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202020222023Said on Jun 9, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%8.45%Jul 9, 2022−0.53 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%8.25%Sep 7, 2022−0.73 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%6.4%Dec 6, 2022−2.59 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%2.88%Jun 9, 2023−6.10 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%2.7%Jun 8, 2025−6.29 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jun 8, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 8.45% at Jul 9, 2022, a change of −0.53 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 8.25% at Sep 7, 2022, a change of −0.73 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 6.40% at Dec 6, 2022, a change of −2.59 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 2.88% at Jun 9, 2023, a change of −6.10 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 2.70% at Jun 8, 2025, a change of −6.29 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 8, 2027.

What was said around it

interest rates in response the caveat here is that the fed apparently doesn't watch the cpi all that closely and that might have something to do with the fact that the cpi isn't exactly the ideal inflation gauge as far as the fed is concerned the aforementioned personal consumption expenditures price index or pce is a better measure of inflation like the cpi the pce is a measure of how much the average american household spends on goods and services each month but let's just say it does this in a different way as it so happens the last pce print suggests that inflation could be peaking and this will probably be confirmed by future inflation prints be they from the pce or cpi the next pce print will come on thursday the 30th of june but i'll reiterate that asset markets don't seem to react too strongly to it even though it's the fed's favorite inflation measure that's why the date you need to highlight is friday the 10th of june which is when the next cpi print comes out and it's possible that it will be out by the time you see this video i'll leave links to the schedule of releases for the pce and cpi in the description along with a link to the schedule of releases for the producer

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed