What was said
“Anyway, this scenario ends with the S&P 500 falling 38% to roughly 3,500, a level that we've not seen since before ChatGPT launched. Home prices fall in all major metros.”Watch at 5:35The AI Collapse Is MUCH Worse Than You Think
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: SPY will fall
Said on Feb 27, 2026, at 5:35 in the video.
The window it was checked over
SPYWindow checked
SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
white-collar workers see a reduction of income or lose their job, they scale back. If they have to sell their home and everyone has to sell the exact same time, home prices begin to fall. If they owe more on the home than what the home is worth, they end up going into foreclosure if they're not able to bridge the gap. And if that sounds crazy, here's a line that really stuck out to me. In 2008, the loans were bad on day one. In 2028, the loans were good on day one, the world just changed after the loans were written. Anyway, this scenario ends with the S&P 500 falling 38% to roughly 3,500, a level that we've not seen since before ChatGPT launched. Home prices fall in all major metros. And the scariest part is that some of the world's smartest people already believe that some of this has begun to happen today. So, in terms of what this means for you and how this might realistically play out, here's what you came for. Although before we go into that, I got to say it's worth zooming out and taking a look at what's happening throughout the markets because nothing moves in a straight line anymore. On top of that, your cash is losing purchasing power, prices are going up, and if you don't take steps
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
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Graham StephanSPYwill fall
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Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days
Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%