Joseph Carlson: Inflation will fall

The window it was checked over

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

deflation she says Downstream inventory accumulation seems to be overwhelming manufacturers and retailers after grappling with supply chain constraints for more than a year even world-class companies seem to have overruled their automatic enterprise resource planning systems this is another way of just saying that a lot of these companies like Amazon like Nike have too much inventory and that excess of inventory is going to cause deflation on this point I do agree with her I actually think there's going to be some deflation and pricing of consumer goods because there are a lot of companies right now even world-class ones as she mentions that have too much stuff they're going to be marking down their products left and right in fact on this topic of too much inventory we have a recent Morgan Stanley analysis that shows that the median inventory sales ratio so the amount of inventory a company has to their amount of sales is basically at an all-time high higher than it's been since 1990. so these kind companies ordered way too much stuff they have way too much stuff they need to get rid of it and they can't get rid of it fast enough and this creates what's called a race to a bottom one company

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