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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Nov 25, 2020, at 9:52 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“i would not be surprised if the market next year is higher than where we are right now”
Watch at 9:52My Thoughts On The 2021 Stock Market Crash
PredictionSPYwill riseby Dec 31, 2021

Recorded as the market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$363.67

Nov 27, 2020

Price at close

$469.44

Nov 24, 2021

Total return, dividends included

+30.9%

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Nov 24, 2021 it closed at $469.44, a total return of +30.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$250$300$350$400$450$500Jun 2020Sep 2020Jan 2021May 2021Sep 2021Jan 2022Said on Nov 25, 2020
$250$300$350$400$450$500Jun 2020Dec 2020Jul 2021Jan 2022Said on Nov 25, 2020

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$369.00Dec 24, 2020+1.9%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$387.50Feb 23, 2021+7.0%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$419.17May 24, 2021+16.1%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$469.44Nov 24, 2021+30.9%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$455.30Nov 24, 2023+30.9%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$668.73Nov 24, 2025+97.2%Total return, dividends included—
Stated deadlineR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$474.96Dec 31, 2021+32.9%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Dec 24, 2020 it closed at $369.00, a total return of +1.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Feb 23, 2021 it closed at $387.50, a total return of +7.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On May 24, 2021 it closed at $419.17, a total return of +16.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Nov 24, 2021 it closed at $469.44, a total return of +30.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Nov 24, 2023 it closed at $455.30, a total return of +30.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Nov 24, 2025 it closed at $668.73, a total return of +97.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: Stated deadline

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Dec 31, 2021 it closed at $474.96, a total return of +32.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

think we're going to continue at a similar trajectory as we are right now but on a smaller scale i don't think we're gonna have the same levels of panic and euphoria as we've seen this year and hey maybe that's a good thing but i think 2021 is going to bring us a lot more stability now that a lot of these unforeseen surprises are out of the way now that's not to say the markets can't go down but i would be shocked if we saw another sharp movement downwards like we saw in march and all things being equal if everything stays the exact same as it is today i would not be surprised if the market next year is higher than where we are right now now this depends on a few variables like how quickly does a vaccine come is there going to be another stimulus or is there going to be another shutdown and all of those are going to impact the market significantly but nothing is going to change my investment strategy for next year which is just to smash the like button an odd amount of times but now in all seriousness my investment strategy for next year is just to continue plowing as much money as i can into index funds and just letting it grow if the market goes down great i'm buying cheaper and if

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%