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Graham Stephan: Inflation will rise

Said on Mar 30, 2020, at 4:23 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“when the Fed begins printing almost unlimited money we I start to see hyperinflation which means the value of her dollar could be worth less and less every single day”
Watch at 4:23Day In The Life of a Millennial Millionaire
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

1.5%

Mar 30, 2020

Reading at close

2.65%

Mar 30, 2021

Change

+1.15 pp

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 2.65% at Mar 30, 2021, a change of +1.15 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Within band

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%201720182018201920202021Said on Mar 30, 2020
−2%0%2%4%6%2017201820202021Said on Mar 30, 2020

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect1.5%0.37%Apr 29, 2020−1.13 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect1.5%0.75%Jun 28, 2020−0.75 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.5%1.5%Sep 26, 2020+0.01 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.5%2.65%Mar 30, 2021+1.15 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.5%4.9%Mar 30, 2023+3.40 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.5%2.37%Mar 29, 2025+0.87 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 0.37% at Apr 29, 2020, a change of −1.13 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 0.75% at Jun 28, 2020, a change of −0.75 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 1.50% at Sep 26, 2020, a change of +0.01 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 2.65% at Mar 30, 2021, a change of +1.15 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 4.90% at Mar 30, 2023, a change of +3.40 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Inflation stood at 1.50% at the start of the window and 2.37% at Mar 29, 2025, a change of +0.87 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

is pretty much just printing money and guaranteeing to the banks and people that they will have money and liquidity available to them whenever they need it they're the ones just basically saying oh you're running out of money not a problem how much money do you need oh that's it well how about this here's just a blank check tell us how much money you need and we got you don't worry about it by doing so the Fed is trying to make our financial worries as soft as possible but all actions like this come at a cost and when the Fed begins printing almost unlimited money we I start to see hyperinflation which means the value of her dollar could be worth less and less every single day but I suppose the Fed sees this as a lesser of two evils and they would rather give too much money than too little all I'm doing this and reading up on everything going on I check up on everything and listen not all the news out there is bad Elon Musk just delivered 50,000 masks to a researchers home Daimler volkswagen donated 110,000 masks and many others are joining it to help well the besides that the early mornings are usually spent researching what's going on trying to figure out what to talk about here on

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed