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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Oct 1, 2021, at 9:51 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“if you wonder why the stock market is about to go absolutely bonkers over the next month, we have a lot happening.”
Watch at 9:51Stop Buying Homes
PredictionSPYwill riseby Nov 30, 2021

Recorded as stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$428.64

Oct 4, 2021

Price at close

$357.18

Sep 30, 2022

Total return, dividends included

−15.4%

SPY closed at $428.64 on Oct 4, 2021. On Sep 30, 2022 it closed at $357.18, a total return of −15.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$350$400$450$500Apr 2021Aug 2021Dec 2021Apr 2022Jul 2022Nov 2022Said on Oct 1, 2021
$350$400$450$500Apr 2021Oct 2021May 2022Nov 2022Said on Oct 1, 2021

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$428.64Oct 4, 2021$459.25Oct 29, 2021+7.1%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$428.64Oct 4, 2021$476.16Dec 30, 2021+11.5%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$428.64Oct 4, 2021$458.70Mar 30, 2022+7.7%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$428.64Oct 4, 2021$357.18Sep 30, 2022−15.4%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$428.64Oct 4, 2021$573.76Sep 30, 2024+39.9%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$428.64Oct 4, 2021$762.63Sep 30, 2026+90.2%Total return, dividends included—
Stated deadlineR-DIR v4Correct$428.64Oct 4, 2021$455.56Nov 30, 2021+6.3%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $428.64 on Oct 4, 2021. On Oct 29, 2021 it closed at $459.25, a total return of +7.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $428.64 on Oct 4, 2021. On Dec 30, 2021 it closed at $476.16, a total return of +11.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $428.64 on Oct 4, 2021. On Mar 30, 2022 it closed at $458.70, a total return of +7.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $428.64 on Oct 4, 2021. On Sep 30, 2022 it closed at $357.18, a total return of −15.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $428.64 on Oct 4, 2021. On Sep 30, 2024 it closed at $573.76, a total return of +39.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $428.64 on Oct 4, 2021. On Sep 30, 2026 it closed at $762.63, a total return of +90.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: Stated deadline

SPY closed at $428.64 on Oct 4, 2021. On Nov 30, 2021 it closed at $455.56, a total return of +6.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

almost 4%. But in late 2018, while the government was shut down for over a month, the markets rallied over 10%. Of which, by the way, you could track all of these stocks using my Hungry Bull app down below in the description. All right, but even though the debt ceiling is certainly a consideration, the US so far has never once defaulted on any of its debt. And the only thing preventing the debt ceiling from being raised in the future is just an agreement between Congress in terms of how much money is going to be spent. Now, on top of that, if you wonder why the stock market is about to go absolutely bonkers over the next month, we have a lot happening. First, part of that has to do with the ever unfolding drama of Everrand, the real estate company who recently defaulted on more than $200 billion worth of debt while leaving the entirety of China picking up the pieces. After it was discovered that they would not be able to repay their debts, China issued a statement to prepare for its demise and the possible storm to come. And as it appears so far, that might be right. On Wednesday, Everrand failed to make a $47 million interest payment. And insiders say that Everrand has not communicated

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%