Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Joseph Carlson: Inflation will fall

Said on Aug 29, 2022, at 21:58 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“i still hold the view that inflation is overall going to ease by the end of the year that's what i think will happen but we'll have to wait to find out”
Watch at 21:58Hedge Funds Are Shorting My Favorite Stock | Joseph Carlson Ep. 267
PredictionInflationwill fallby Dec 31, 2022
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.28%

Aug 29, 2022

Reading at close

3.6%

Aug 29, 2023

Change

−4.68 pp

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 29, 2023, a change of −4.68 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220232023Said on Aug 29, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202120222023Said on Aug 29, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.28%8.25%Sep 28, 2022−0.03 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%6.98%Nov 27, 2022−1.30 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%6.15%Feb 25, 2023−2.13 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%3.6%Aug 29, 2023−4.68 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%2.94%Aug 28, 2025−5.34 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 28, 2027——
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%6.4%Dec 31, 2022−1.89 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 8.25% at Sep 28, 2022, a change of −0.03 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 6.98% at Nov 27, 2022, a change of −1.30 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 6.15% at Feb 25, 2023, a change of −2.13 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 29, 2023, a change of −4.68 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 2.94% at Aug 28, 2025, a change of −5.34 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 28, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 6.40% at Dec 31, 2022, a change of −1.89 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

virtually anything that requires energy becomes more expensive so gas prices coming down in price has a huge effect on overall inflation real inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings for the month rose point five percent so over the past month real wages have actually outpaced the rate of inflation now i realize there's a lot of other people on the other side of this trade that believe inflation is going to continue out of control and get higher and higher i think there's a case for that that could certainly happen but i still hold the view that inflation is overall going to ease by the end of the year that's what i think will happen but we'll have to wait to find out now moving on we have another viral tick tock to react to this one has actually received tens of millions of views all across social media and what this is is a guy going around with a camera at a car dealership asking them what cars they have and what their payment is let's go ahead and just listen to some of them respond here hey sir what is your car payment uh mine is 13.25 and what kind of vehicle is that it's a 22 ford raptor yes you heard that right his car payment is 13.25 now he doesn't say the duration of it so

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed