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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Nov 10, 2020, at 10:26 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“in 30 years from now i could say with almost 100 certainty that the stock market is going to be way higher then than it is today”
Watch at 10:26STOCK MARKET REACHES ANOTHER ALL TIME HIGH | DO THIS NOW
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$354.04

Nov 10, 2020

Price at close

$463.62

Nov 10, 2021

Total return, dividends included

+32.8%

SPY closed at $354.04 on Nov 10, 2020. On Nov 10, 2021 it closed at $463.62, a total return of +32.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$250$300$350$400$450$500May 2020Sep 2020Jan 2021May 2021Sep 2021Jan 2022Said on Nov 10, 2020
$250$300$350$400$450$500May 2020Dec 2020Jun 2021Jan 2022Said on Nov 10, 2020

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$354.04Nov 10, 2020$366.73Dec 10, 2020+3.6%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$354.04Nov 10, 2020$390.51Feb 8, 2021+10.8%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$354.04Nov 10, 2020$422.12May 7, 2021+20.1%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$354.04Nov 10, 2020$463.62Nov 10, 2021+32.8%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$354.04Nov 10, 2020$440.61Nov 10, 2023+30.1%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$354.04Nov 10, 2020$670.97Nov 7, 2025+103.3%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $354.04 on Nov 10, 2020. On Dec 10, 2020 it closed at $366.73, a total return of +3.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $354.04 on Nov 10, 2020. On Feb 8, 2021 it closed at $390.51, a total return of +10.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $354.04 on Nov 10, 2020. On May 7, 2021 it closed at $422.12, a total return of +20.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $354.04 on Nov 10, 2020. On Nov 10, 2021 it closed at $463.62, a total return of +32.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $354.04 on Nov 10, 2020. On Nov 10, 2023 it closed at $440.61, a total return of +30.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $354.04 on Nov 10, 2020. On Nov 7, 2025 it closed at $670.97, a total return of +103.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

the argument that the market is at an all-time high doesn't make a lot of sense because naturally we're always going to be hitting new all-time highs like imagine buying into the s p 500 at its previous all-time high on january 26 2018 at 28.72 sure in the subsequent few months prices went down and it took about a year to return back to that same level but even though you bought in at a previous all-time high if you just held so far today you would be up 25 in just under three years not even including dividends being reinvested and in 30 years from now i could say with almost 100 certainty that the stock market is going to be way higher then than it is today and i bet 30 years from now we can look back at today and be like wow the market is so cheap i wish i bought more of course yes anything could happen and maybe the markets go down in the short term who knows either way statistically it's better to get your money invested in the markets now and continually reinvest otherwise you could be a part of the statistic that misses out on those best days in the market and lastly i just want to say this just because some good news came out does not mean we're out of the woods just yet and if

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days−1.6%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%