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Graham Stephan: Inflation will fall

Said on Apr 29, 2020, at 6:39 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I would say deflation is likely going to be the biggest concern and that happens when our cash becomes more valuable the longer we hold on to it”
Watch at 6:39NEW FED STIMULUS WARNING | FREE MONEY + INFINITE SPENDING
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

0.37%

Apr 29, 2020

Reading at close

4.27%

Apr 29, 2021

Change

+3.90 pp

Inflation stood at 0.37% at the start of the window and 4.27% at Apr 29, 2021, a change of +3.90 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%201720182019201920202021Said on Apr 29, 2020
−2%0%2%4%6%2017201820202021Said on Apr 29, 2020

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band0.37%0.24%May 29, 2020−0.13 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect0.37%1%Jul 28, 2020+0.63 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect0.37%1.19%Oct 26, 2020+0.82 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect0.37%4.27%Apr 29, 2021+3.90 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect0.37%4.94%Apr 29, 2023+4.57 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect0.37%2.27%Apr 28, 2025+1.90 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 0.37% at the start of the window and 0.24% at May 29, 2020, a change of −0.13 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 0.37% at the start of the window and 1.00% at Jul 28, 2020, a change of +0.63 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 0.37% at the start of the window and 1.19% at Oct 26, 2020, a change of +0.82 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 0.37% at the start of the window and 4.27% at Apr 29, 2021, a change of +3.90 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 0.37% at the start of the window and 4.94% at Apr 29, 2023, a change of +4.57 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Inflation stood at 0.37% at the start of the window and 2.27% at Apr 28, 2025, a change of +1.90 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

concern over inflation because the markets are so uncertain a lot of people are out of work they're not spending money either stuck at home and because of all of that there's no real upward push in prices but one day when people's confidence comes back and they go back to work and all of a sudden they have some money to spend then at that point I would begin to worry that maybe inflation could rise at which point I have a feeling the Federal Reserve would step in again to make sure it doesn't get too out of control until then I would say deflation is likely going to be the biggest concern and that happens when our cash becomes more valuable the longer we hold on to it so we hoard cash and not spend it because prices keep falling and that's really bad for the economy I have a really in-depth video about this so they've made about a few weeks ago so if you guys are interested in learning more about that I'm gonna link to that video down below in the description during the press release it was also brought up that the Federal Reserve is essentially propping up the stock market with these fiscal policies there is a disconnect it appears between the markets and the economic outlook right now

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed