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Graham Stephan: Inflation will rise

Said on Aug 28, 2020, at 5:32 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“under this over the next year the fed could potentially drive up inflation 6.2 percent and then technically they're able to hit their average long term of their two percent”
Watch at 5:32THE FED JUST BAILED OUT THE STOCK MARKET AGAIN
PredictionInflationwill riseby Dec 31, 2021
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

1.32%

Aug 28, 2020

Reading at close

5.13%

Aug 28, 2021

Change

+3.81 pp

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 5.13% at Aug 28, 2021, a change of +3.81 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%201720182019202020212021Said on Aug 28, 2020
−2%0%2%4%6%8%2017201920202021Said on Aug 28, 2020

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.32%1.5%Sep 27, 2020+0.18 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.32%1.12%Nov 26, 2020−0.20 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.32%1.59%Feb 24, 2021+0.27 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.32%5.13%Aug 28, 2021+3.81 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.32%3.6%Aug 28, 2023+2.28 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.32%2.94%Aug 27, 2025+1.62 pp—
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.32%7.04%Dec 31, 2021+5.72 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 1.50% at Sep 27, 2020, a change of +0.18 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 1.12% at Nov 26, 2020, a change of −0.20 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 1.59% at Feb 24, 2021, a change of +0.27 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 5.13% at Aug 28, 2021, a change of +3.81 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 28, 2023, a change of +2.28 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 2.94% at Aug 27, 2025, a change of +1.62 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: Stated deadline

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 7.04% at Dec 31, 2021, a change of +5.72 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

not redeeming them for starbucks coffee we could let inflation go as high as it needs to as long as we just average out eventually to two percent a year that means if we see one percent inflation every year for ten years the fed would have no problem with sixteen percent inflation the following three years just if that averages out to two percent a year that also means if we take our average inflation rate since 2012 we come up to an average amount of 11.8 percent worth of inflation over the last eight years under this over the next year the fed could potentially drive up inflation 6.2 percent and then technically they're able to hit their average long term of their two percent think of this almost like making up for lost time or encouraging short-term inflation with the expectation that they can always bring it down in the future once the economy recovers when it comes to this let's talk about the good news first and then we'll talk about the bad news because everyone likes the good news first right maybe not but anyway here's the good news for investors this means the value of your investments could be going up that's because generally speaking asset prices like stocks and real estate

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed