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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Sep 24, 2021, at 4:38 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“we could continue to see the stock market going higher and higher.”
Watch at 4:38Why The Market Hasn't Crashed Yet
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$442.64

Sep 27, 2021

Price at close

$367.95

Sep 23, 2022

Total return, dividends included

−15.6%

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Sep 23, 2022 it closed at $367.95, a total return of −15.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$350$400$450$500Mar 2021Jul 2021Nov 2021Mar 2022Jul 2022Nov 2022Said on Sep 24, 2021
$350$400$450$500Mar 2021Oct 2021May 2022Nov 2022Said on Sep 24, 2021

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$442.64Sep 27, 2021$453.12Oct 22, 2021+2.4%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$442.64Sep 27, 2021$470.60Dec 23, 2021+6.7%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$442.64Sep 27, 2021$443.80Mar 23, 2022+0.9%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$442.64Sep 27, 2021$367.95Sep 23, 2022−15.6%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$442.64Sep 27, 2021$569.67Sep 23, 2024+34.5%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$442.64Sep 27, 2021$767.81Sep 23, 2026+85.5%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Oct 22, 2021 it closed at $453.12, a total return of +2.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Dec 23, 2021 it closed at $470.60, a total return of +6.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Mar 23, 2022 it closed at $443.80, a total return of +0.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Sep 23, 2022 it closed at $367.95, a total return of −15.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Sep 23, 2024 it closed at $569.67, a total return of +34.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $442.64 on Sep 27, 2021. On Sep 23, 2026 it closed at $767.81, a total return of +85.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

prove these theories with a whole bunch of math that I don't understand because I didn't pay attention to anything in high school. But the result was just this. They found that investing $1 in the market increases the aggregate market value by $5, not 1 cent like the average person thought. The purpose was to help explain stock market volatility, find the root cause of rising prices, and estimate the Fed impact of money printing within the economy. And that means when we have a ratio of 5:1 and companies are sitting on a record amount of cash on the sidelines, we could continue to see the stock market going higher and higher. Now, Michael Bur explains that 5:1 is not a natural ratio. It's a product of a paradigm. So what will continue this paradigm? What may reserve it? This is the knife's edge because we are at 5:1. It may go to 100 to one or become neg 5 to negative 1, but parabas don't resolve sideways. Or basically to sum things up, he's just saying that 5:1 is not a sign of an efficient market where one investor buys a stock that the other sells. This type of increase within the market is extremely dangerous because it could just as easily reverse or go up another 20 times. But

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%