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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Mar 16, 2017, at 6:14 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“Chances are it's going to be a lot higher than it is right now.”
Watch at 6:14Compound interest: How to turn $1 into $10
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$238.48

Mar 16, 2017

Price at close

$274.20

Mar 16, 2018

Total return, dividends included

+17.7%

SPY closed at $238.48 on Mar 16, 2017. On Mar 16, 2018 it closed at $274.20, a total return of +17.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$200$220$240$260$280$300Sep 2016Jan 2017May 2017Sep 2017Jan 2018May 2018Said on Mar 16, 2017
$200$220$240$260$280$300Sep 2016Apr 2017Oct 2017May 2018Said on Mar 16, 2017

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$238.48Mar 16, 2017$232.51Apr 13, 2017−2.1%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$238.48Mar 16, 2017$244.24Jun 14, 2017+2.9%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$238.48Mar 16, 2017$250.05Sep 12, 2017+5.8%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$238.48Mar 16, 2017$274.20Mar 16, 2018+17.7%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$238.48Mar 16, 2017$269.32Mar 13, 2020+19.5%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$238.48Mar 16, 2017$426.17Mar 15, 2022+95.3%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $238.48 on Mar 16, 2017. On Apr 13, 2017 it closed at $232.51, a total return of −2.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $238.48 on Mar 16, 2017. On Jun 14, 2017 it closed at $244.24, a total return of +2.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $238.48 on Mar 16, 2017. On Sep 12, 2017 it closed at $250.05, a total return of +5.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $238.48 on Mar 16, 2017. On Mar 16, 2018 it closed at $274.20, a total return of +17.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $238.48 on Mar 16, 2017. On Mar 13, 2020 it closed at $269.32, a total return of +19.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $238.48 on Mar 16, 2017. On Mar 15, 2022 it closed at $426.17, a total return of +95.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

you guys. Let's let's hold out. Let's wait until it crashes to $220. That'll be the best time to buy. Well, again, look at the prices now. The S&P 500 is over $2,350 right now at the time of this video. I don't know what it's going to be a year from now. You may be watching this video a year from now in like 2018 and maybe it crashed. But just that mentality defeats the entire point of this video and that it doesn't really matter what the price is right now. All you care about is what it's going to be 30 years from now or 40 years from now or 25 years from now. Chances are it's going to be a lot higher than it is right now. So that's why I really dislike trying to time the market, trying to beat it, trying to wait for a crash because none of us really know in the end and it's more important just to have your money in the market for as long as possible. And plus, there are so many studies out there that confirm it's less about timing the market and more about time in the market. This video is also about putting your money to work for as long as possible and why it's so important to start investing your money as early as you can. Keep this in mind, too. If you're 18 years old watching

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days−1.6%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%