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Graham Stephan: Inflation will fall

Said on May 11, 2023, at 4:44 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“with rents beginning to decline, we could start to see these numbers fall towards the mid to end of this year.”
Watch at 4:44Why America Is Going Bankrupt
PredictionInflationwill fallby Dec 31, 2023
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.06%

May 11, 2023

Reading at close

3.27%

May 10, 2024

Change

−0.78 pp

Inflation stood at 4.06% at the start of the window and 3.27% at May 10, 2024, a change of −0.78 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Within band

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%2%4%6%8%10%202020212022202220232024Said on May 11, 2023
0%5%10%2020202120232024Said on May 11, 2023

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct4.06%2.88%Jun 10, 2023−1.17 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.06%3.6%Aug 9, 2023−0.45 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct4.06%3.21%Nov 7, 2023−0.85 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct4.06%3.27%May 10, 2024−0.78 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.06%4.18%May 10, 2026+0.12 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——May 9, 2028——
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band4.06%3.6%Dec 31, 2023−0.45 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 4.06% at the start of the window and 2.88% at Jun 10, 2023, a change of −1.17 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 4.06% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 9, 2023, a change of −0.45 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 4.06% at the start of the window and 3.21% at Nov 7, 2023, a change of −0.85 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 4.06% at the start of the window and 3.27% at May 10, 2024, a change of −0.78 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 4.06% at the start of the window and 4.18% at May 10, 2026, a change of +0.12 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 9, 2028.

Why: Stated deadline

Inflation stood at 4.06% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Dec 31, 2023, a change of −0.45 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

higher for longer. This is also supported by housing, which is still the largest contributor of inflation. In this case, the cost of shelter increased by 8.1% in April, which is only down from 8.2% in March. Or in other words, this contributed to more than 60% of the monthly increase in the index for all items excluding food and energy, which is a big deal. Fortunately though, the good news is that housing only takes into account existing costs, like the leases that were signed a year ago, and not necessarily where the market is today. And with rents beginning to decline, we could start to see these numbers fall towards the mid to end of this year. On top of that, it's also said that Jerome Powell understands and expects housing to be a lagging indicator. And as a result, he's supposedly looking at what's called super core inflation, which is core inflation minus housing. So, when you begin to chip away at everything that makes inflation high, yeah, it's obviously going to start to look a lot better. Anyway, in terms of what this means for the rest of the economy, you're going to want to listen up. Arguably, the biggest immediate impact throughout almost everything from stock prices

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed