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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Dec 18, 2024, at 14:48 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“we'll continually hit new all-time highs as the market and economy grows hopefully”
Watch at 14:48URGENT: Federal Reserve Cancels 2025 Rate Cuts, Markets Crashing FAST!
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$586.10

Dec 19, 2024

Price at close

$676.47

Dec 18, 2025

Total return, dividends included

+16.8%

SPY closed at $586.10 on Dec 19, 2024. On Dec 18, 2025 it closed at $676.47, a total return of +16.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$450$500$550$600$650$700$750Jun 2024Oct 2024Feb 2025Jun 2025Oct 2025Feb 2026Said on Dec 18, 2024
$400$500$600$700$800Jun 2024Jan 2025Jul 2025Feb 2026Said on Dec 18, 2024

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$586.10Dec 19, 2024$597.58Jan 17, 2025+2.3%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$586.10Dec 19, 2024$561.02Mar 18, 2025−4.0%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$586.10Dec 19, 2024$602.68Jun 16, 2025+3.5%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$586.10Dec 19, 2024$676.47Dec 18, 2025+16.8%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Dec 17, 2027——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Dec 17, 2029——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $586.10 on Dec 19, 2024. On Jan 17, 2025 it closed at $597.58, a total return of +2.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $586.10 on Dec 19, 2024. On Mar 18, 2025 it closed at $561.02, a total return of −4.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $586.10 on Dec 19, 2024. On Jun 16, 2025 it closed at $602.68, a total return of +3.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $586.10 on Dec 19, 2024. On Dec 18, 2025 it closed at $676.47, a total return of +16.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 17, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 17, 2029.

What was said around it

years you'd be up over 200% now sure that's certainly not as much as bitcoin's 9000% return in that time frame but that's why I believe a well Diversified portfolio is worth it I like placing a small amount of Bitcoin in something like an ETF where if it goes up great and if it doesn't that would really suck but it's not the end of the world so even though yes markets are high I'm not deterred by the price and I'm just buying in on a consistent basis no matter what like I remember making similar videos addressing the market all-time high six years ago and we'll continually hit new all-time highs as the market and economy grows hopefully I'm just a firm believer of taking a very slow and steady approach that's very consistent and no matter what hitting the like button and subscribing if you have not done that already so thank you guys so much for watching it really means a lot happy New Year happy holidays and until next time

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%