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Coin Bureau: Inflation will fall

Said on Apr 11, 2022, at 16:57 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“the bad news is that it doesn't look like that top will come in any time soon”
Watch at 16:57Crypto News: Recession Fears, BTC Miami, Elon, Twitter & More!!
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.18%

Apr 11, 2022

Reading at close

4.94%

Apr 11, 2023

Change

−3.24 pp

Inflation stood at 8.18% at the start of the window and 4.94% at Apr 11, 2023, a change of −3.24 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202120222023Said on Apr 11, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202020222023Said on Apr 11, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.18%8.54%May 11, 2022+0.35 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.18%8.45%Jul 10, 2022+0.27 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.18%7.71%Oct 8, 2022−0.47 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.18%4.94%Apr 11, 2023−3.24 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.18%2.27%Apr 10, 2025−5.91 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Apr 10, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.18% at the start of the window and 8.54% at May 11, 2022, a change of +0.35 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.18% at the start of the window and 8.45% at Jul 10, 2022, a change of +0.27 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.18% at the start of the window and 7.71% at Oct 8, 2022, a change of −0.47 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.18% at the start of the window and 4.94% at Apr 11, 2023, a change of −3.24 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.18% at the start of the window and 2.27% at Apr 10, 2025, a change of −5.91 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 10, 2027.

What was said around it

it's ready to start reducing its balance sheet as early as next month to keep inflation under control i'll be doing a video about that later this week too so i won't get into the details here all you need to know right now is that reducing the fed's balance sheet means that interest rates will rise even more aggressively i imagine investors around the world are praying to every god they can think of that the inflation statistic for march magically shows a reduction in the rate of inflation in cryptospeak they're desperate for the top of the inflation trend the bad news is that it doesn't look like that top will come in any time soon and that means the markets will be responding with a lot of volatility whenever a fed board member so much as sneezes the good news is we're entering a period that crypto was designed for specifically btc bitcoin was created in response to the last financial crisis and it looks like it's slowly becoming a lifeboat for all the people around the world who are starting to drown in the fluid of the current financial system believe it or not but it's possible that central banks will start jumping into the bitcoin boat too and you can find out why that is by using

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed