Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Joseph Carlson: Inflation will fall

Said on Sep 6, 2022, at 6:02 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“i think it will probably take numerous month over month incremental decreases in inflation before the market really starts to go back up”
Watch at 6:02This Is When The Sell-Off Will End | Joseph Carlson Ep. 269
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.25%

Sep 6, 2022

Reading at close

3.61%

Sep 6, 2023

Change

−4.64 pp

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 3.61% at Sep 6, 2023, a change of −4.64 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220232024Said on Sep 6, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202120222024Said on Sep 6, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.25%7.71%Oct 6, 2022−0.54 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.25%6.4%Dec 5, 2022−1.86 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.25%4.9%Mar 5, 2023−3.35 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.25%3.61%Sep 6, 2023−4.64 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.25%3.08%Sep 5, 2025−5.18 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Sep 5, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 7.71% at Oct 6, 2022, a change of −0.54 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 6.40% at Dec 5, 2022, a change of −1.86 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 4.90% at Mar 5, 2023, a change of −3.35 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 3.61% at Sep 6, 2023, a change of −4.64 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 3.08% at Sep 5, 2025, a change of −5.18 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 5, 2027.

What was said around it

kind of outcome i think if people see inflation come off eight and a half you know you start to see a pretty powerful uh continuing trend um then i think people will expect at some point the fed to ease his opinion is the market will start to go back up when it becomes clear that inflation is no longer a problem and the fed can start easing on the interest rates on this point i actually agree with his take i think it's very difficult to have a very bullish and positive sentiment market with inflation still being a problem and i think it will probably take numerous month over month incremental decreases in inflation before the market really starts to go back up but keep in mind the market is a pricing machine that's what everyone's doing is they're baking in expectations of the future and by the time inflation no longer becomes a problem and the market prices that in if you're not already in the market you may miss that window so i'm with bill ackman that i'm staying firmly invested in the market throughout this duration i also own very good companies in my portfolio and i can wait out this storm now speaking of good companies there's one in my portfolio that just announced some breaking

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed