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Graham Stephan: Inflation will rise

Said on Jun 23, 2025, at 10:39 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“All of this is likely to result in higher inflation and it might continue for quite some time.”
Watch at 10:39How The Global Economy Could Collapse (Instantly)
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

2.7%

Jun 23, 2025

Reading at close

3.44%

Jun 23, 2026

Change

+0.74 pp

Inflation stood at 2.70% at the start of the window and 3.44% at Jun 23, 2026, a change of +0.74 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%2%4%6%8%10%202220232024202420252026Said on Jun 23, 2025
0%2%4%6%8%10%2022202320252026Said on Jun 23, 2025

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.7%2.74%Jul 23, 2025+0.04 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.7%3.08%Sep 21, 2025+0.38 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.7%2.63%Dec 20, 2025−0.07 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2.7%3.44%Jun 23, 2026+0.74 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jun 22, 2028——
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jun 22, 2030——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 2.70% at the start of the window and 2.74% at Jul 23, 2025, a change of +0.04 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 2.70% at the start of the window and 3.08% at Sep 21, 2025, a change of +0.38 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 2.70% at the start of the window and 2.63% at Dec 20, 2025, a change of −0.07 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 2.70% at the start of the window and 3.44% at Jun 23, 2026, a change of +0.74 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 22, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 22, 2030.

What was said around it

all the oil coming out of the region. And since Iran and China are on good terms, having worked together for the last few decades, it's unlikely that Iran would do anything to jeopardize their largest alliance. But that also does not mean that markets will not react very negatively until it's eventually resolved. And this is what we are currently seeing. Overall, no surprise, we are seeing higher oil prices almost immediately purely because oil flow could be disrupted and insurance prices on oil ships have increased 60% in just the last few weeks. All of this is likely to result in higher inflation and it might continue for quite some time. For example, the former energy adviser just said that shipping could be interrupted for weeks or months rather than the oil market's view that the US Navy would resolve the situation in hours or days. On top of that, we're also seeing a bit of a sell-off in the stock markets because higher prices threaten to cause the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. Not to mention, if costs do increase, consumer spending is expected to pull back by a lot given that 57% of Americans are already living paycheck to paycheck. This selloff is

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed