Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Feb 28, 2025, at 13:36 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“you are practically guaranteed to make money in the stock market over the next 20 years regardless of what happens in the short term”
Watch at 13:36An Urgent Warning For All Investors: Tariffs, Bitcoin, & Mass Selling
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$583.77

Mar 3, 2025

Price at close

$685.99

Feb 27, 2026

Total return, dividends included

+18.9%

SPY closed at $583.77 on Mar 3, 2025. On Feb 27, 2026 it closed at $685.99, a total return of +18.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$450$500$550$600$650$700$750Sep 2024Jan 2025May 2025Aug 2025Dec 2025Apr 2026Said on Feb 28, 2025
$400$500$600$700$800Sep 2024Mar 2025Oct 2025Apr 2026Said on Feb 28, 2025

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$583.77Mar 3, 2025$555.66Mar 28, 2025−4.5%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$583.77Mar 3, 2025$590.05May 29, 2025+1.4%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$583.77Mar 3, 2025$646.63Aug 27, 2025+11.4%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$583.77Mar 3, 2025$685.99Feb 27, 2026+18.9%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Feb 28, 2028——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Feb 27, 2030——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $583.77 on Mar 3, 2025. On Mar 28, 2025 it closed at $555.66, a total return of −4.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $583.77 on Mar 3, 2025. On May 29, 2025 it closed at $590.05, a total return of +1.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $583.77 on Mar 3, 2025. On Aug 27, 2025 it closed at $646.63, a total return of +11.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $583.77 on Mar 3, 2025. On Feb 27, 2026 it closed at $685.99, a total return of +18.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 28, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 27, 2030.

What was said around it

time that you should be concerned about something like this is if you're within a few years of retirement in which case you've probably already rebalanced your portfolio to much more safer stable Investments and if you haven't done that well yeah I would be concerned and you're probably F but again outside of retiring in the next few years any short-term drop in price is simply a good opportunity to buy in cheaper than you could a few months ago the reality is if you could just follow the above and what we've already talked about you are practically guaranteed to make money in the stock market over the next 20 years regardless of what happens in the short term I say this so confidently because over a 20-year holding period the S&P 500 has never once produced a negative result ever this means you could quite literally Buy in at the very top go all in right before one of the worst crashes we've ever ever seen in history and still make money if you just held longterm with dividends reinvested of course this is why my advice is always going to be the exact same you're never going to hear me say guys this is it this is the time to sell everything did you just see what CNN just said about the

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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