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Graham Stephan: Inflation will rise

Said on Mar 22, 2021, at 11:23 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“My thinking is that most likely we will end up seeing higher inflation, we'll see slightly higher interest rates, and that will have an impact on the real estate and stock market.”
Watch at 11:23The Stock Market Is About To Snap
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

2.65%

Mar 22, 2021

Reading at close

8.65%

Mar 22, 2022

Change

+6.00 pp

Inflation stood at 2.65% at the start of the window and 8.65% at Mar 22, 2022, a change of +6.00 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201820192019202020212022Said on Mar 22, 2021
−5%0%5%10%2018201920212022Said on Mar 22, 2021

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2.65%4.27%Apr 21, 2021+1.62 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2.65%5.35%Jun 20, 2021+2.70 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2.65%5.35%Sep 18, 2021+2.70 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2.65%8.65%Mar 22, 2022+6.00 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2.65%3.45%Mar 21, 2024+0.80 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2.65%3.34%Mar 21, 2026+0.69 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 2.65% at the start of the window and 4.27% at Apr 21, 2021, a change of +1.62 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 2.65% at the start of the window and 5.35% at Jun 20, 2021, a change of +2.70 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 2.65% at the start of the window and 5.35% at Sep 18, 2021, a change of +2.70 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 2.65% at the start of the window and 8.65% at Mar 22, 2022, a change of +6.00 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 2.65% at the start of the window and 3.45% at Mar 21, 2024, a change of +0.80 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Inflation stood at 2.65% at the start of the window and 3.34% at Mar 21, 2026, a change of +0.69 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

still. It tends to swing too far in one direction of optimism and euphoria, and then we swing too far in the other direction of fear and panic. What's going on right now is really no different. Bond yields are worrying investors, and perhaps there's an overreaction that inflation is soon going to be out of control. But whether or not that's actually the case is yet to be seen, and because inflation data comes out every month, it's likely going to take us through summer to figure out what's actually going on. My thinking is that most likely we will end up seeing higher inflation, we'll see slightly higher interest rates, and that will have an impact on the real estate and stock market. However, once true inflation data starts coming out and getting more consistent, I think everything will begin to return back to normal and things will move along. It's only scary right now because it's the unknown. We have no way of truly figuring out how high inflation will be or how high interest rates will go or exactly what impact that's going to have. So usually in times of uncertainty, we price in the worst possible case scenario. And whether or not that scenario actually plays out is a whole 'nother

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed