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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Jun 8, 2020, at 3:54 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“again that's not to say that the markets won't be up even higher by the end of the year because I think there's a strong likelihood it can be”
Watch at 3:54A WARNING for ALL Investors
PredictionSPYwill riseby Dec 31, 2020

Recorded as the markets, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$320.79

Jun 9, 2020

Price at close

$422.28

Jun 8, 2021

Total return, dividends included

+33.7%

SPY closed at $320.79 on Jun 9, 2020. On Jun 8, 2021 it closed at $422.28, a total return of +33.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$200$250$300$350$400$450$500Dec 2019Apr 2020Aug 2020Dec 2020Apr 2021Aug 2021Said on Jun 8, 2020
$200$300$400$500Dec 2019Jun 2020Jan 2021Aug 2021Said on Jun 8, 2020

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$320.79Jun 9, 2020$316.18Jul 8, 2020−1.0%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$320.79Jun 9, 2020$342.57Sep 4, 2020+7.3%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$320.79Jun 9, 2020$369.85Dec 4, 2020+16.3%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$320.79Jun 9, 2020$422.28Jun 8, 2021+33.7%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$320.79Jun 9, 2020$429.13Jun 8, 2023+40.0%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$320.79Jun 9, 2020$599.14Jun 6, 2025+100.9%Total return, dividends included—
Stated deadlineR-DIR v4Correct$320.79Jun 9, 2020$373.88Dec 31, 2020+18.0%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $320.79 on Jun 9, 2020. On Jul 8, 2020 it closed at $316.18, a total return of −1.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $320.79 on Jun 9, 2020. On Sep 4, 2020 it closed at $342.57, a total return of +7.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $320.79 on Jun 9, 2020. On Dec 4, 2020 it closed at $369.85, a total return of +16.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $320.79 on Jun 9, 2020. On Jun 8, 2021 it closed at $422.28, a total return of +33.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $320.79 on Jun 9, 2020. On Jun 8, 2023 it closed at $429.13, a total return of +40.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $320.79 on Jun 9, 2020. On Jun 6, 2025 it closed at $599.14, a total return of +100.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: Stated deadline

SPY closed at $320.79 on Jun 9, 2020. On Dec 31, 2020 it closed at $373.88, a total return of +18.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

that includes that the sp500 has always been up following a really strong 50-day rally is it likely to be the case maybe but it certainly doesn't guarantee it from happening just because it always has number to be very careful of any sort of confirmation bias with anything you read online there's always gonna be evidence to support whatever you want to believe in if you look hard enough and whether or not it's actually true closing yourself off to other information can really hinder your ability and performance as an investor again that's not to say that the markets won't be up even higher by the end of the year because I think there's a strong likelihood it can be but this is the reason why despite everything going on I've just repeated myself non-stop that the only thing you could do while the market acts completely crazy and irrational is by consistently and hold that's it and I understand too logically that some of these things just don't make sense and these are the comments I get a lot but grant why should i invest right now in your bank it's too high I should wait again and the Americans gonna grab but I'm gonna make the German my answer to that is the market is always going to

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%