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Graham Stephan: Inflation will fall

Said on Aug 19, 2022, at 10:06 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“with less resources being consumed inflation could begin to subside or even decline”
Watch at 10:06China’s Economic Collapse Just Got Worse
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.28%

Aug 19, 2022

Reading at close

3.6%

Aug 19, 2023

Change

−4.68 pp

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 19, 2023, a change of −4.68 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220232023Said on Aug 19, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202120222023Said on Aug 19, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.28%8.25%Sep 18, 2022−0.03 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%6.98%Nov 17, 2022−1.30 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%6.15%Feb 15, 2023−2.13 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%3.6%Aug 19, 2023−4.68 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%2.94%Aug 18, 2025−5.34 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 18, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 8.25% at Sep 18, 2022, a change of −0.03 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 6.98% at Nov 17, 2022, a change of −1.30 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 6.15% at Feb 15, 2023, a change of −2.13 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 19, 2023, a change of −4.68 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 2.94% at Aug 18, 2025, a change of −5.34 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 18, 2027.

What was said around it

or over one trillion dollars could be delisted from our us-based markets the second be aware that it could take a long time to unfold since China publishes their own numbers and maintains an extremely tight grip on their economy there is no guarantee that they can't just keep kicking the can further and further into the future and they have the ability to inject as much money as needed to resolve the situation at least temporarily and finally in a weird way China's slowing growth and Global recession could help ease demand in upward price growth meaning with less resources being consumed inflation could begin to subside or even decline now a lot of these are very broad assumptions without a definitive timeline for when they could unfold but it is a very worrying sign that we're not going to know the full effects of what's to come until most likely it's too late so with that today guys thank you so much for watching if you want to be kept up to date make sure to subscribe thank you so much for watching and until next time

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed