Coin Bureau: Inflation will rise to 4%

The window it was checked over

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

see between now and the end of the year could be abnormally high due to the relative comparison CPI could stay exactly where it is but because it had fallen a year previously it would show up as an increase complicated I know the good news is that these base effects have probably been priced in the bad news is that this doesn't change the fact that a sudden spike in the CPI could lead to an increase in inflation expectations for the average person who has no idea what the base effect is this would force the FED to react accordingly throw in Rising food and energy prices and you have a recipe for a CPI that could Spike back over four percent by some estimates in addition to increasing the chance of additional rate hikes it could cause longer term interest rates to spike as investors seek to be compensated for higher levels of inflation in the future this would cause U.S bond prices to crash which could cause volatility across the entire Financial System since U.S bonds are used as collateral for all of the financial loans If the Fed continues to roll off its balance sheet and the treasury keeps selling longer term debt the effect will be magnified then again if there's anything that the

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