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Graham Stephan: Inflation will fall

Said on Dec 14, 2022, at 6:10 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“rental prices are beginning to decline throughout the United States and if history is any indication this will begin showing up on CPI numbers in the middle of next year as tenants begin to renew their leases at Market rents which will likely be a lot lower than than they are today”
Watch at 6:10THE FED JUST CRUSHED THE MARKET | Urgent Changes Explained
PredictionInflationwill fallby Dec 31, 2023
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

6.4%

Dec 14, 2022

Reading at close

3.6%

Dec 14, 2023

Change

−2.79 pp

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Dec 14, 2023, a change of −2.79 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%202020202021202220232024Said on Dec 14, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2020202120222024Said on Dec 14, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.4%6.6%Jan 13, 2023+0.20 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.4%4.9%Mar 14, 2023−1.49 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.4%2.88%Jun 12, 2023−3.51 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.4%3.6%Dec 14, 2023−2.79 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.4%2.63%Dec 13, 2025−3.77 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Dec 13, 2027——
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.4%3.6%Dec 31, 2023−2.79 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 6.60% at Jan 13, 2023, a change of +0.20 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 4.90% at Mar 14, 2023, a change of −1.49 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 2.88% at Jun 12, 2023, a change of −3.51 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Dec 14, 2023, a change of −2.79 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 2.63% at Dec 13, 2025, a change of −3.77 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 13, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Dec 31, 2023, a change of −2.79 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

not to mention a lot more inventory for instance fewer people are renting because more people are moving back in with their parents occupancy is falling because prices have gotten too high not to mention they have so much much excess inventory that they're selling off entire subdivisions to institutional landlords who want to rent them out future construction is also slowing down now that multi-family building is at a 36 year high all of that is to say that rental prices are beginning to decline throughout the United States and if history is any indication this will begin showing up on CPI numbers in the middle of next year as tenants begin to renew their leases at Market rents which will likely be a lot lower than than they are today second let's talk about the stock market it's no surprise that lower than expected inflation is enough to send the stock market into an end of the year rally but with the Federal Reserve now expected to continue the rate hikes throughout 2023 there's the mindset that the worst could still be yet to come that's because the market is very much Forward Thinking meaning it doesn't matter so much what's happening today but instead with the market expects to happen

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed