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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Feb 22, 2021, at 12:34 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the reality is if you do what i just described you're pretty much guaranteed to make money over a 20-year period regardless of what the stock market does”
Watch at 12:34The Next Market Crash - 7 Ways To Make Money
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the stock market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$387.50

Feb 23, 2021

Price at close

$429.57

Feb 22, 2022

Total return, dividends included

+12.3%

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. On Feb 22, 2022 it closed at $429.57, a total return of +12.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$300$350$400$450$500Aug 2020Dec 2020Apr 2021Aug 2021Dec 2021Apr 2022Said on Feb 22, 2021
$300$350$400$450$500Aug 2020Mar 2021Oct 2021Apr 2022Said on Feb 22, 2021

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Within band$387.50Feb 23, 2021$387.52Mar 24, 2021+0.3%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$387.50Feb 23, 2021$414.94May 21, 2021+7.4%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$387.50Feb 23, 2021$443.36Aug 20, 2021+15.2%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$387.50Feb 23, 2021$429.57Feb 22, 2022+12.3%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$387.50Feb 23, 2021$507.50Feb 22, 2024+36.9%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$387.50Feb 23, 2021$689.43Feb 20, 2026+90.6%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. On Mar 24, 2021 it closed at $387.52, a total return of +0.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. On May 21, 2021 it closed at $414.94, a total return of +7.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. On Aug 20, 2021 it closed at $443.36, a total return of +15.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. On Feb 22, 2022 it closed at $429.57, a total return of +12.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. On Feb 22, 2024 it closed at $507.50, a total return of +36.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $387.50 on Feb 23, 2021. On Feb 20, 2026 it closed at $689.43, a total return of +90.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

honorary number seven if you need this money in the next three to five years you should probably not be investing in stocks a few years in the stock market is not long enough to ensure that you're actually going to be making money so the shorter your investment time frame is the less likely you should be investing in stocks or really anything that could lose value in the short term ideally you should view anything you do in the stock market as a 10 to 20 year time frame and anything less than that becomes a lot riskier the reality is if you do what i just described you're pretty much guaranteed to make money over a 20-year period regardless of what the stock market does i say this so confidently because in the entire history of the stock market a 20-year holding period has never once produced a negative result that literally means you could buy in at the absolute top the day before a market crash and then not make a single other investment for another 20 years and you will have still made money and when you compare the drops with the gains you could quickly see that bear markets become a blip on the radar and over time they're barely noticeable get it barely noticeable smash the like

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%