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Coin Bureau: Inflation will fall

Said on Jun 9, 2022, at 14:26 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“i suspect we're going to see many of these supply-side issues resolved by the end of the year because of the upcoming elections in the united states and elsewhere”
Watch at 14:26WATCH OUT For These!! Macro Factors Driving Crypto Markets!! 📈
PredictionInflationwill fallby Dec 31, 2022
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.98%

Jun 9, 2022

Reading at close

2.88%

Jun 9, 2023

Change

−6.10 pp

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 2.88% at Jun 9, 2023, a change of −6.10 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220222023Said on Jun 9, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202020222023Said on Jun 9, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%8.45%Jul 9, 2022−0.53 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%8.25%Sep 7, 2022−0.73 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%6.4%Dec 6, 2022−2.59 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%2.88%Jun 9, 2023−6.10 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%2.7%Jun 8, 2025−6.29 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jun 8, 2027——
Stated deadlineR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%6.4%Dec 31, 2022−2.59 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 8.45% at Jul 9, 2022, a change of −0.53 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 8.25% at Sep 7, 2022, a change of −0.73 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 6.40% at Dec 6, 2022, a change of −2.59 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 2.88% at Jun 9, 2023, a change of −6.10 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 2.70% at Jun 8, 2025, a change of −6.29 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 8, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 6.40% at Dec 31, 2022, a change of −2.59 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

on their debts but if the alternative is the hyperinflation of the us dollar you can bet the fed will make that sacrifice the worst part is that the macro factors that could cause supply side inflation don't exactly run to a schedule they're usually announced as they happen with little to no forewarning in my experience keeping up with the news can help predict these macro factors but in truth i've never managed to get the timing right and i'd never think of trying to trade these events either for what it's worth i suspect we're going to see many of these supply-side issues resolved by the end of the year because of the upcoming elections in the united states and elsewhere inflation has been the number one issue on the minds of voters so much so that it has resulted in record low approval ratings for the leaders of just about every country anyhow the fourth macro factor to be on the lookout for is the employment situation summary aka the jobs report along with other employment related indicators this is because the fed is tasked with doing two things ensuring price stability i.e ensuring two percent inflation and ensuring maximum employment which the fed interprets as four percent unemployment

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed