Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Feb 17, 2021, at 8:11 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“But with more money entering the stock markets on debt, it's inevitable that that is going to rise prices alongside it.”
Watch at 8:11The Stock Market Is Out Of Control
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$390.72

Feb 18, 2021

Price at close

$437.06

Feb 17, 2022

Total return, dividends included

+13.4%

SPY closed at $390.72 on Feb 18, 2021. On Feb 17, 2022 it closed at $437.06, a total return of +13.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$300$350$400$450$500Aug 2020Dec 2020Apr 2021Aug 2021Dec 2021Apr 2022Said on Feb 17, 2021
$300$350$400$450$500Aug 2020Mar 2021Sep 2021Apr 2022Said on Feb 17, 2021

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Within band$390.72Feb 18, 2021$389.48Mar 19, 20210.0%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$390.72Feb 18, 2021$411.94May 18, 2021+5.8%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$390.72Feb 18, 2021$446.97Aug 16, 2021+15.1%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$390.72Feb 18, 2021$437.06Feb 17, 2022+13.4%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$390.72Feb 18, 2021$499.51Feb 16, 2024+33.7%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$390.72Feb 18, 2021$681.75Feb 13, 2026+86.9%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $390.72 on Feb 18, 2021. On Mar 19, 2021 it closed at $389.48, a total return of 0.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $390.72 on Feb 18, 2021. On May 18, 2021 it closed at $411.94, a total return of +5.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $390.72 on Feb 18, 2021. On Aug 16, 2021 it closed at $446.97, a total return of +15.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $390.72 on Feb 18, 2021. On Feb 17, 2022 it closed at $437.06, a total return of +13.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $390.72 on Feb 18, 2021. On Feb 16, 2024 it closed at $499.51, a total return of +33.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $390.72 on Feb 18, 2021. On Feb 13, 2026 it closed at $681.75, a total return of +86.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

doing what it is. The second, we got to talk about margin. When interest rates are really low, people are encouraged to borrow more money, and I think this makes sense, and it can be done responsibly. But many people forget the risks that you are literally borrowing money to buy an investment that has the potential to go down in value. Now, depending on what you're investing in and for how long and at what interest rate, it might be worth it, and that's one of the reasons why I refuse to pay off my 2 and 1/2% 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. But with more money entering the stock markets on debt, it's inevitable that that is going to rise prices alongside it. The third, we got to talk about why the worst stocks are doing the best. Right now, I feel like a lot of people are looking for the next big opportunity. We've seen companies like Zoom 5x in price, and with the economy reopening, there's the expectation that really hard-hit companies with really bad financials that everyone has seemed to have overlooked will eventually end up doing much better. I also think there's a bit of the mindset of why would I invest in a company that's already up 300% in a year when I could buy the company that's

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all