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Graham Stephan: SPY will fall

Said on Jan 31, 2022, at 9:52 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“Long-term, the markets are not going to be increasing at 20% annually, so it's best to ride the entire market as it goes up and not try to impress your friends over at Wall Street Bets.”
Watch at 9:52What EVERYONE Needs To Do With Their Money ASAP
PredictionSPYwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the markets, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$452.95

Feb 1, 2022

Price at close

$406.48

Jan 31, 2023

Total return, dividends included

−8.8%

SPY closed at $452.95 on Feb 1, 2022. On Jan 31, 2023 it closed at $406.48, a total return of −8.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$350$400$450$500Aug 2021Dec 2021Apr 2022Aug 2022Nov 2022Mar 2023Said on Jan 31, 2022
$350$400$450$500Aug 2021Feb 2022Sep 2022Mar 2023Said on Jan 31, 2022

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$452.95Feb 1, 2022$437.89Mar 2, 2022−3.3%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$452.95Feb 1, 2022$412.00Apr 29, 2022−8.8%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$452.95Feb 1, 2022$411.99Jul 29, 2022−8.4%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$452.95Feb 1, 2022$406.48Jan 31, 2023−8.8%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$452.95Feb 1, 2022$605.04Jan 30, 2025+39.6%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jan 29, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $452.95 on Feb 1, 2022. On Mar 2, 2022 it closed at $437.89, a total return of −3.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $452.95 on Feb 1, 2022. On Apr 29, 2022 it closed at $412.00, a total return of −8.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $452.95 on Feb 1, 2022. On Jul 29, 2022 it closed at $411.99, a total return of −8.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $452.95 on Feb 1, 2022. On Jan 31, 2023 it closed at $406.48, a total return of −8.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $452.95 on Feb 1, 2022. On Jan 30, 2025 it closed at $605.04, a total return of +39.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 29, 2027.

What was said around it

But I do think that it could be a smart conservative choice to keep a little bit of money on the sidelines just in case you see something. The second, you also have the typical index funds, which is where I'm investing the majority of my money right now. Historically, an investment like this over the last 100 years has returned about 7 to 8% annually, adjusted for inflation with dividends reinvested. I know that now seems low compared to the craziness that we've seen over these last 2 years, but come on. Long-term, the markets are not going to be increasing at 20% annually, so it's best to ride the entire market as it goes up and not try to impress your friends over at Wall Street Bets. The third, like I mentioned before, some investors are hedging their position with cryptocurrency, and I think with a small portion of your portfolio, it could be worth looking into. In fact, Fidelity found that even just a 5% allocation to Bitcoin would have boosted the cumulative return of a traditional portfolio by 65% since 2014, even despite the sell-offs along the way. Now, that does not mean go and yolo everything to crypto, but it does mean that a 3 to 5% allocation could give you more diversification

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days−1.6%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%