Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Joseph Carlson: Inflation will fall

Said on Jun 15, 2022, at 21:19 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“i think it's much better for the long-term investor that the fed takes this aggressive stance and gets inflation under control i think the most damaging thing to our portfolios in the long run is sustained heightened inflation not the federal funds rate going up temporary but inflation”
Watch at 21:19The Fed Just Raised Rates (Why I’m Buying Now)
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.98%

Jun 15, 2022

Reading at close

2.88%

Jun 15, 2023

Change

−6.10 pp

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 2.88% at Jun 15, 2023, a change of −6.10 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220222023Said on Jun 15, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202020222023Said on Jun 15, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%8.45%Jul 15, 2022−0.53 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%8.25%Sep 13, 2022−0.73 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%6.4%Dec 12, 2022−2.59 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%2.88%Jun 15, 2023−6.10 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.98%2.7%Jun 14, 2025−6.29 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Jun 14, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 8.45% at Jul 15, 2022, a change of −0.53 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 8.25% at Sep 13, 2022, a change of −0.73 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 6.40% at Dec 12, 2022, a change of −2.59 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 2.88% at Jun 15, 2023, a change of −6.10 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.98% at the start of the window and 2.70% at Jun 14, 2025, a change of −6.29 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 14, 2027.

What was said around it

percent and 1.75 percent now here's the interesting thing right when this happened right when the fed announced the 0.75 percentage point increase the stock market across the board went down like half a percent half a percent to a full percent so investors were acting like this wasn't priced in like they weren't ready for this and maybe the fed would do a half percentage point and i think that this is the wrong reaction i think the market has this wrong i think it's much better for the long-term investor that the fed takes this aggressive stance and gets inflation under control i think the most damaging thing to our portfolios in the long run is sustained heightened inflation not the federal funds rate going up temporary but inflation so even though the market right now is trying to make sense of this and there's this little sell-off i think this is overall positive news inflation needs to come down that's better for long-term investors it's better for the stock market overall and the quicker we can do this the better so i think this little sell-off on the fed increasing interest rates by 75 basis points is unwarranted investors should look at this as a positive thing it means that inflation

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed