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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Jul 3, 2025, at 12:57 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“long-term I'm still very optimistic about the markets.”
Watch at 12:57It Started: The 'Great Melt-Up' Of 2025 (Dollar Collapsing, Stocks Skyrocketing)
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the markets, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$620.68

Jul 7, 2025

Price at close

$744.78

Jul 2, 2026

Total return, dividends included

+21.3%

SPY closed at $620.68 on Jul 7, 2025. On Jul 2, 2026 it closed at $744.78, a total return of +21.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$400$500$600$700$800Jan 2025May 2025Sep 2025Jan 2026May 2026Aug 2026Said on Jul 3, 2025
$400$500$600$700$800Jan 2025Jul 2025Feb 2026Aug 2026Said on Jul 3, 2025

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Within band$620.68Jul 7, 2025$621.72Aug 1, 2025+0.2%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$620.68Jul 7, 2025$668.45Oct 1, 2025+8.0%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$620.68Jul 7, 2025$687.01Dec 30, 2025+11.3%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$620.68Jul 7, 2025$744.78Jul 2, 2026+21.3%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jun 30, 2028——
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jul 2, 2030——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $620.68 on Jul 7, 2025. On Aug 1, 2025 it closed at $621.72, a total return of +0.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $620.68 on Jul 7, 2025. On Oct 1, 2025 it closed at $668.45, a total return of +8.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $620.68 on Jul 7, 2025. On Dec 30, 2025 it closed at $687.01, a total return of +11.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $620.68 on Jul 7, 2025. On Jul 2, 2026 it closed at $744.78, a total return of +21.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 30, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 2, 2030.

What was said around it

think it's worth it to think strategically about what you're doing and hedge yourself so that no matter what happens, you're going to be okay. This is why I still keep a portion of my money in US treasuries earning 4.2%. And I continue to buy into the markets on a daily basis, split evenly between 1/3 US stocks, 1/3 international, and 1/3 into a Bitcoin ETF with money I don't intend on touching for another 20 years. This is also in addition to the real estate I already own with fixed rate mortgages between 2.8 to 3.4%. All of this is a hedge against a falling dollar and long-term I'm still very optimistic about the markets. Like here's a fun fact by Ryan Detrich on Twitter. The S&P 500 has been higher in a post-election year nine of the past 10 cycles going back 40 years. Of course, I could also be totally wrong, but I'm in the mindset that it's worth it to hear out as many different perspectives as possible. hear out the experts who seem to know what they're talking about. Keep an open mind and no matter what, hit the like button and subscribe if you haven't done that already. So, with that said, thank you so much for watching. If you agree or disagree, just let me know down below in the

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days−1.6%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%