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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Mar 8, 2019, at 9:16 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I just know that index funds are my second largest investment besides real estate and I have no concern that long-term overall the market will be trending up”
Watch at 9:16How To Become A Millionaire: Index Fund Investing For Beginners
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$278.44

Mar 11, 2019

Price at close

$297.46

Mar 6, 2020

Total return, dividends included

+8.9%

SPY closed at $278.44 on Mar 11, 2019. On Mar 6, 2020 it closed at $297.46, a total return of +8.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$200$250$300$350Sep 2018Jan 2019May 2019Sep 2019Jan 2020May 2020Said on Mar 8, 2019
$200$250$300$350Sep 2018Mar 2019Oct 2019May 2020Said on Mar 8, 2019

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$278.44Mar 11, 2019$288.57Apr 5, 2019+4.1%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$278.44Mar 11, 2019$284.80Jun 6, 2019+2.7%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$278.44Mar 11, 2019$294.04Sep 4, 2019+6.6%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$278.44Mar 11, 2019$297.46Mar 6, 2020+8.9%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$278.44Mar 11, 2019$419.43Mar 7, 2022+58.4%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$278.44Mar 11, 2019$509.75Mar 6, 2024+98.7%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $278.44 on Mar 11, 2019. On Apr 5, 2019 it closed at $288.57, a total return of +4.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $278.44 on Mar 11, 2019. On Jun 6, 2019 it closed at $284.80, a total return of +2.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $278.44 on Mar 11, 2019. On Sep 4, 2019 it closed at $294.04, a total return of +6.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $278.44 on Mar 11, 2019. On Mar 6, 2020 it closed at $297.46, a total return of +8.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $278.44 on Mar 11, 2019. On Mar 7, 2022 it closed at $419.43, a total return of +58.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $278.44 on Mar 11, 2019. On Mar 6, 2024 it closed at $509.75, a total return of +98.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

markets and I would even go so far as to say that for most people watching they would be best off just investing in an index fund to get the highest overall return long time and I got to say that by doing this it is so much less stressful it's literally just a buy it and forget about it mentality there is no panicking in the middle of the night worried about like earnings reports tomorrow there is no worries about like SEC allegations or companies going down or profits falling this this no worries whatsoever for me I just know that index funds are my second largest investment besides real estate and I have no concern that long-term overall the market will be trending up alright so with that out of the way what's the best way to go about doing this and also which are the best investments for you to buy now my favorite index fund investing method is what's called the three fund portfolio this is also one of the most popular index fund investing strategies that like I said earlier beats 99% of individual investors long-term over a 10-year period and as the name suggests it obviously consists of three funds obviously funds number one is a US stock market index fund number two is an international

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 90 days

Correct so far · 90 days−1.6%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%