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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Jul 11, 2022, at 13:36 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“in the three years following every single recession we have ever had the market was 100 in the green”
Watch at 13:36The Biggest Market Crash Of Our Generation Is Coming
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$380.83

Jul 12, 2022

Price at close

$442.46

Jul 11, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+18.1%

SPY closed at $380.83 on Jul 12, 2022. On Jul 11, 2023 it closed at $442.46, a total return of +18.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$340$360$380$400$420$440$460$480Jan 2022May 2022Sep 2022Jan 2023May 2023Sep 2023Said on Jul 11, 2022
$350$400$450$500Jan 2022Aug 2022Feb 2023Sep 2023Said on Jul 11, 2022

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$380.83Jul 12, 2022$419.99Aug 10, 2022+10.3%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$380.83Jul 12, 2022$362.79Oct 7, 2022−4.3%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$380.83Jul 12, 2022$388.08Jan 6, 2023+2.8%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$380.83Jul 12, 2022$442.46Jul 11, 2023+18.1%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$380.83Jul 12, 2022$625.82Jul 10, 2025+71.5%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Jul 9, 2027——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $380.83 on Jul 12, 2022. On Aug 10, 2022 it closed at $419.99, a total return of +10.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $380.83 on Jul 12, 2022. On Oct 7, 2022 it closed at $362.79, a total return of −4.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $380.83 on Jul 12, 2022. On Jan 6, 2023 it closed at $388.08, a total return of +2.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $380.83 on Jul 12, 2022. On Jul 11, 2023 it closed at $442.46, a total return of +18.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $380.83 on Jul 12, 2022. On Jul 10, 2025 it closed at $625.82, a total return of +71.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 9, 2027.

What was said around it

that way you could form a concrete habit by doing these six steps as well as preparing ahead of time there's no reason you shouldn't do incredibly well throughout whatever happens plus in relation to the stock market the good news is that even though there can be an abrupt sell-off by the time a recession is over the market actually recovers and has posted an average profit of 1.7 with an average gain of 15.3 percent in the following one year that means that investing during a recession is one of the most profitable times to invest not to mention in the three years following every single recession we have ever had the market was 100 in the green and in terms of valuetainment's overall 50 minute video honestly it's one of the few videos i would recommend watching twice it really goes to show you that times like this don't have to be something to dread and for so many people the best opportunities came into time where no one else was prepared for it riches are very much made in recession so take that to heart get really good at what you do and no matter what subscribe and hit the like button if you haven't done that already plus watch patrick's full video down below in the description because

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%