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Coin Bureau: Inflation will rise

Said on Feb 27, 2023, at 3:05 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“this is a bigger deal than you think because it suggests that inflation in the U.S won't be coming down anytime soon if anything it suggests that the US could be on the brink of a second wave of inflation”
Watch at 3:05Crypto News: ETH, Tezos, SEC, USDC Taking Over & More!
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

6.15%

Feb 27, 2023

Reading at close

3.12%

Feb 27, 2024

Change

−3.03 pp

Inflation stood at 6.15% at the start of the window and 3.12% at Feb 27, 2024, a change of −3.03 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%202020212021202220232024Said on Feb 27, 2023
−5%0%5%10%2020202120222024Said on Feb 27, 2023

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.15%4.9%Mar 29, 2023−1.25 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.15%4.06%May 28, 2023−2.09 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.15%3.6%Aug 26, 2023−2.54 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.15%3.12%Feb 27, 2024−3.03 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Incorrect6.15%2.4%Feb 26, 2026−3.74 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Feb 26, 2028——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 6.15% at the start of the window and 4.90% at Mar 29, 2023, a change of −1.25 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 6.15% at the start of the window and 4.06% at May 28, 2023, a change of −2.09 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 6.15% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 26, 2023, a change of −2.54 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 6.15% at the start of the window and 3.12% at Feb 27, 2024, a change of −3.03 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 6.15% at the start of the window and 2.40% at Feb 26, 2026, a change of −3.74 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 26, 2028.

What was said around it

raising of interest rates has basically been sucking money out of asset markets as everyone pays down more expensive debts and investors price in lower corporate profits because of the money shortage the good news is that the CPI and PPI are still coming down albeit much slower than before the bad news is that the fed's favorite inflation index actually went back into positive territory in January the personal consumption expenditures or pce Rose by 0.1 percent from 5.3 percent to 5.4 percent this is a bigger deal than you think because it suggests that inflation in the U.S won't be coming down anytime soon if anything it suggests that the US could be on the brink of a second wave of inflation despite all the rate hikes logically this means the FED will have to raise rates even higher in response and that's just the macro side of the story The crypto side of the story is somehow looking even worse if you're subscribed to My Weekly Newsletter you'll know that I talked quite a bit about the recent Announcement by the fed the FDIC and the OCC about volatility in the crypto Market if you watched our video about operation choke point 2 you'll know that the fed the FDIC and the OCC all put

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed