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Coin Bureau: Inflation will fall

Said on Aug 3, 2022, at 17:21 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“inflation is going to come down eventually and interest rates will respond in kind”
Watch at 17:21Protect Yourself Against INFLATION!! Here's How!!
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.28%

Aug 3, 2022

Reading at close

3.6%

Aug 3, 2023

Change

−4.68 pp

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 3, 2023, a change of −4.68 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220232023Said on Aug 3, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202120222023Said on Aug 3, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.28%8.25%Sep 2, 2022−0.03 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%6.98%Nov 1, 2022−1.30 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%6.6%Jan 30, 2023−1.68 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%3.6%Aug 3, 2023−4.68 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%2.94%Aug 2, 2025−5.34 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 2, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 8.25% at Sep 2, 2022, a change of −0.03 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 6.98% at Nov 1, 2022, a change of −1.30 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 6.60% at Jan 30, 2023, a change of −1.68 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 3, 2023, a change of −4.68 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 2.94% at Aug 2, 2025, a change of −5.34 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 2, 2027.

What was said around it

platforms and decentralized finance protocols via lending and liquidity provision for coin pairs the interest rates aren't much but they're better than nothing however given how much chaos has been happening on centralized crypto platforms you might want to stick to the second method of earning yield on stable coins but be sure to do your research and make sure your stablecoin holdings are diversified because the last thing you want is for circle or tether to freeze your savings anywho the final step to beating inflation is to keep the macro context in mind inflation is going to come down eventually and interest rates will respond in kind that's simply because the issues on the supply and demand sides of the equation are being actively addressed as you watch this video it's anyone's guess as to when inflation will come down but history suggests that periods of high inflation last for about two to three years at a time at least in the united states not surprisingly this is consistent with the length of fed interest rate cycles which likewise last for two to three years at a time the scary thing is that what has historically brought down inflation wasn't the fed's rate hikes but rather the

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed