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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Aug 30, 2018, at 11:30 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“my only prediction is this is that 30 years from now 20 or 30 years from now we'll see a price higher than where we are now”
Watch at 11:30STOCK MARKET HITS ALL TIME HIGHS - TIME TO SELL!!
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$290.31

Aug 31, 2018

Price at close

$292.45

Aug 30, 2019

Total return, dividends included

+2.7%

SPY closed at $290.31 on Aug 31, 2018. On Aug 30, 2019 it closed at $292.45, a total return of +2.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$220$240$260$280$300$320Mar 2018Jul 2018Nov 2018Mar 2019Jun 2019Oct 2019Said on Aug 30, 2018
$220$240$260$280$300$320Mar 2018Sep 2018Apr 2019Oct 2019Said on Aug 30, 2018

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$290.31Aug 31, 2018$290.72Sep 28, 2018+0.6%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$290.31Aug 31, 2018$274.58Nov 28, 2018−5.0%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$290.31Aug 31, 2018$279.32Feb 26, 2019−2.8%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$290.31Aug 31, 2018$292.45Aug 30, 2019+2.7%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$290.31Aug 31, 2018$450.25Aug 27, 2021+63.7%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$290.31Aug 31, 2018$449.16Aug 29, 2023+68.4%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $290.31 on Aug 31, 2018. On Sep 28, 2018 it closed at $290.72, a total return of +0.6% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $290.31 on Aug 31, 2018. On Nov 28, 2018 it closed at $274.58, a total return of −5.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $290.31 on Aug 31, 2018. On Feb 26, 2019 it closed at $279.32, a total return of −2.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $290.31 on Aug 31, 2018. On Aug 30, 2019 it closed at $292.45, a total return of +2.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $290.31 on Aug 31, 2018. On Aug 27, 2021 it closed at $450.25, a total return of +63.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $290.31 on Aug 31, 2018. On Aug 29, 2023 it closed at $449.16, a total return of +68.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

down 15% and you can go and look at me and say but but Graham you were wrong about you were again I'm not predicting the markets consistently always going up I'm not telling you guys the market is going to be 7 or 10% higher next year I'm not telling you what's going to go down next year all I'm saying is this is that long term the trend always tends to be upwards we're talking about 20 or 30 years the short term is unpredictable could it be higher next year yes could it be lower next year yes I have no prediction in this whatsoever my only prediction is this is that 30 years from now 20 or 30 years from now we'll see a price higher than where we are now and that given the long term historic trends over the last like 100 years of the SP of 500 I think it's fairly safe to assume that long term 30 years from now on average we can see somewhere around a 7% return maybe 8 percent could be 6% somewhere around there long term doesn't mean it's going to be that every single year there will be years it goes down 20% in years it goes up 20% the long term always tends to go up and that's the whole point of this video all-time highs don't really matter the peaks we're always going to be hitting

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%