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Joseph Carlson: Inflation will rise

Said on Oct 3, 2024, at 15:12 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“this does impact the economy in a negative way it raises prices across the board and it could reignite inflation to some degree none of that is good for the US for customers for investors”
Watch at 15:12The Stock Market Has Become Overvalued
PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

2.55%

Oct 3, 2024

Reading at close

3.08%

Oct 3, 2025

Change

+0.53 pp

Inflation stood at 2.55% at the start of the window and 3.08% at Oct 3, 2025, a change of +0.53 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%2%4%6%8%10%202120222023202420252026Said on Oct 3, 2024
0%2%4%6%8%10%2021202320242026Said on Oct 3, 2024

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.55%2.77%Nov 2, 2024+0.22 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.55%3.04%Jan 1, 2025+0.49 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band2.55%2.27%Apr 1, 2025−0.28 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct2.55%3.08%Oct 3, 2025+0.53 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Oct 3, 2027——
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Oct 2, 2029——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 2.55% at the start of the window and 2.77% at Nov 2, 2024, a change of +0.22 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 2.55% at the start of the window and 3.04% at Jan 1, 2025, a change of +0.49 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 2.55% at the start of the window and 2.27% at Apr 1, 2025, a change of −0.28 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 2.55% at the start of the window and 3.08% at Oct 3, 2025, a change of +0.53 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 3, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 2, 2029.

What was said around it

broad shortages of those goods and of course this happens right after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points the worst thing that could happen for the Federal Reserve is for inflation to start trending back up that could potentially impact the soft Landing they're looking for so we know it's at stay care this isn't something that's going to completely shut down the economy people shouldn't be entirely fearful because of these strikes there's still other ports that are open right now but this does impact the economy in a negative way it raises prices across the board and it could reignite inflation to some degree none of that is good for the US for customers for investors now this is also a story where unfortunately the more that you read about this and the more that you research it you just become more and more upset at why they're striking and specifically what they're asking for this is one of those stories where just the more you dive into it the more irritating it becomes first of all the guy behind the strike is the leader of the international long shoreman's Association his name is Harold daget now we'll talk about Harold her in just a minute but I first want to

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed