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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Dec 15, 2021, at 12:13 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“even though there's a strong chance that the Market's going to do well the last week of December and into January there's an even bigger chance that year over year the Market's going to be up so the sooner you tend to invest the better”
Watch at 12:13Why You’ll Regret Buying Stocks In 2022
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the Market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$466.45

Dec 16, 2021

Price at close

$389.63

Dec 15, 2022

Total return, dividends included

−15.2%

SPY closed at $466.45 on Dec 16, 2021. On Dec 15, 2022 it closed at $389.63, a total return of −15.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$350$400$450$500Jun 2021Oct 2021Feb 2022Jun 2022Oct 2022Feb 2023Said on Dec 15, 2021
$350$400$450$500Jun 2021Jan 2022Jul 2022Feb 2023Said on Dec 15, 2021

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Within band$466.45Dec 16, 2021$464.72Jan 14, 20220.0%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$466.45Dec 16, 2021$426.17Mar 15, 2022−8.3%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$466.45Dec 16, 2021$375.00Jun 13, 2022−19.1%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$466.45Dec 16, 2021$389.63Dec 15, 2022−15.2%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$466.45Dec 16, 2021$604.21Dec 13, 2024+35.4%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——Dec 14, 2026——
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $466.45 on Dec 16, 2021. On Jan 14, 2022 it closed at $464.72, a total return of 0.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $466.45 on Dec 16, 2021. On Mar 15, 2022 it closed at $426.17, a total return of −8.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $466.45 on Dec 16, 2021. On Jun 13, 2022 it closed at $375.00, a total return of −19.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $466.45 on Dec 16, 2021. On Dec 15, 2022 it closed at $389.63, a total return of −15.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $466.45 on Dec 16, 2021. On Dec 13, 2024 it closed at $604.21, a total return of +35.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 14, 2026.

What was said around it

the S P 500 and 65 of the time this has proven true however even though having a 65 to 75 chance of something happening is really enticing it's actually not as good as you might expect if you invest in the S P 500 since 1950 there have only been 15 times where the markets closed lower at the end of the year meaning you have a 75 chance of making money if all you do is dump everything into the S P 500 on January 1st of every year and then do nothing but all of that is to say that even though there's a strong chance that the Market's going to do well the last week of December and into January there's an even bigger chance that year over year the Market's going to be up so the sooner you tend to invest the better not Financial advice of course only time is going to tell how well this age is and maybe we're in the 25 chance that Santa Claus never comes this year but regardless year over year you have a good chance at making money if all you do is buy in Don't Panic sell and keep smashing a like button for the YouTube algorithm so with that said you guys thank you so much for watching also make sure to subscribe hit the notification Bell feel free to add me on Instagram and on my second Channel

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%