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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Nov 25, 2020, at 11:02 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“i think we're gonna see more green then red we'll have more ups and downs and overall it's gonna be a positive for the market”
Watch at 11:02My Thoughts On The 2021 Stock Market Crash
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$363.67

Nov 27, 2020

Price at close

$469.44

Nov 24, 2021

Total return, dividends included

+30.9%

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Nov 24, 2021 it closed at $469.44, a total return of +30.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$250$300$350$400$450$500Jun 2020Sep 2020Jan 2021May 2021Sep 2021Jan 2022Said on Nov 25, 2020
$250$300$350$400$450$500Jun 2020Dec 2020Jul 2021Jan 2022Said on Nov 25, 2020

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$369.00Dec 24, 2020+1.9%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$387.50Feb 23, 2021+7.0%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$419.17May 24, 2021+16.1%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$469.44Nov 24, 2021+30.9%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$455.30Nov 24, 2023+30.9%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$363.67Nov 27, 2020$668.73Nov 24, 2025+97.2%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Dec 24, 2020 it closed at $369.00, a total return of +1.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Feb 23, 2021 it closed at $387.50, a total return of +7.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On May 24, 2021 it closed at $419.17, a total return of +16.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Nov 24, 2021 it closed at $469.44, a total return of +30.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Nov 24, 2023 it closed at $455.30, a total return of +30.9% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $363.67 on Nov 27, 2020. On Nov 24, 2025 it closed at $668.73, a total return of +97.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

optimistic with biotech and renewable energies i know we've seen an incredible run so far on those already this year but i think we're going to continue expanding more into solar renewable energies electric vehicles and so on even california wants to go fully electric by 2035 and that could be a huge push in that direction but overall though i'm a fairly boring investor i just believe in doing the same things repetitively over and over again and sticking with what works regardless of what happens in the short term but in this upcoming year i think we're gonna see more green then red we'll have more ups and downs and overall it's gonna be a positive for the market oh and back to the whole monkey picking stock thing because i get it that's what you guys really wanted to hear about so here's how the monkeys were able to beat the market in fact 98 out of 100 monkeys did better than the index so here's how that happened these monkeys were geniuses just kidding these results were because of how these stock picks were structured and in replacement to monkeys they used simulations so that way no monkeys would be harmed they did this by randomly selecting a hundred portfolios containing 30 stocks from

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%