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Joseph Carlson: Inflation will fall

Said on Sep 26, 2022, at 21:13 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“so my thought was maybe inflation will go go down quicker than expected the FED will do a pivot and the stock market will go up”
Watch at 21:13Jeremy Siegel Just Destroyed The Fed | Joseph Carlson Ep. 274
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.25%

Sep 26, 2022

Reading at close

3.61%

Sep 26, 2023

Change

−4.64 pp

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 3.61% at Sep 26, 2023, a change of −4.64 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220232024Said on Sep 26, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202120222024Said on Sep 26, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.25%7.71%Oct 26, 2022−0.54 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.25%6.4%Dec 25, 2022−1.86 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.25%4.9%Mar 25, 2023−3.35 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.25%3.61%Sep 26, 2023−4.64 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.25%3.08%Sep 25, 2025−5.18 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Sep 25, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 7.71% at Oct 26, 2022, a change of −0.54 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 6.40% at Dec 25, 2022, a change of −1.86 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 4.90% at Mar 25, 2023, a change of −3.35 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 3.61% at Sep 26, 2023, a change of −4.64 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.25% at the start of the window and 3.08% at Sep 25, 2025, a change of −5.18 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 25, 2027.

What was said around it

investment decisions based on where inflation will be or where the interest rates will be I look at the data and I make predictions on it for instance my prediction was that inflation was going to hit its peak in March of 2022. so the core CPI hit 6.5 percent I came out with a video that very month saying that inflation has peaked I'm no Economist so why do I come to this conclusion simply because prices of things are either leveling out or starting to go down there's no big formula for it that's the only thing that I'm looking at so my thought was maybe inflation will go go down quicker than expected the FED will do a pivot and the stock market will go up but we have a compare and contrast here we have what Jeremy Siegel sing and the predictions that inflation will go down the FED is going to do a hard pivot and we have what people like Greg Jensen are saying that inflation is going to remain more stubborn than expected for longer than expected now I want to go on to explain why I'm not too concerned with what direction inflation goes or what direction the federal funds rate goes or even what direction the economy goes It's All About portfolio construction I tried to illustrate this

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed