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Graham Stephan: SPY will fall

Said on May 24, 2022, at 8:46 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“yes it could absolutely continue falling over the next year or maybe even two years”
Watch at 8:46The Stock Market JUST Went From BAD To WORSE | How To Prepare
PredictionSPYwill fallby Dec 31, 2023

Recorded as the market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Entry price (first close after the video)

$397.37

May 25, 2022

Price at close

$411.09

May 24, 2023

Total return, dividends included

+5.2%

SPY closed at $397.37 on May 25, 2022. On May 24, 2023 it closed at $411.09, a total return of +5.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$350$400$450$500Nov 2021Mar 2022Jul 2022Nov 2022Mar 2023Jul 2023Said on May 24, 2022
$350$400$450$500Nov 2021Jun 2022Jan 2023Jul 2023Said on May 24, 2022

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$397.37May 25, 2022$378.06Jun 23, 2022−4.4%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$397.37May 25, 2022$413.35Aug 22, 2022+4.5%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Incorrect$397.37May 25, 2022$396.03Nov 18, 2022+0.5%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Incorrect$397.37May 25, 2022$411.09May 24, 2023+5.2%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Incorrect$397.37May 25, 2022$579.11May 23, 2025+52.3%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Pending——May 21, 2027——
Stated deadlineR-DIR v4Incorrect$397.37May 25, 2022$475.31Dec 29, 2023+23.0%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $397.37 on May 25, 2022. On Jun 23, 2022 it closed at $378.06, a total return of −4.4% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $397.37 on May 25, 2022. On Aug 22, 2022 it closed at $413.35, a total return of +4.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $397.37 on May 25, 2022. On Nov 18, 2022 it closed at $396.03, a total return of +0.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $397.37 on May 25, 2022. On May 24, 2023 it closed at $411.09, a total return of +5.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $397.37 on May 25, 2022. On May 23, 2025 it closed at $579.11, a total return of +52.3% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 21, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

SPY closed at $397.37 on May 25, 2022. On Dec 29, 2023 it closed at $475.31, a total return of +23.0% (dividends included). The call was that it would fall.

What was said around it

buy is probably when most people believe it's a bad time to buy and it's about to get a lot worse I think if the market is not prepared for something to go wrong it's probably trading higher than it should be so don't fear drops like this even though they're hard to watch no one likes seeing their money get flushed down the toilet if you're not planning on selling and you don't need the money for the next 10 years just consider it a 30 off discount continue buying as normal and don't let it hold you back in the moment no one knows what's gonna happen and yes it could absolutely continue falling over the next year or maybe even two years but long term if you're Diversified and don't invest in companies that can't audit their financials tether the new should be okay as long as you smash the like button and subscribe for the YouTube algorithm so thank you guys so much for watching and don't forget to add me on Instagram and also subscribe to the market sentiment blog I'll link to them down below in the description because they've done a tremendous job Gathering all of this information that helps you and I become better investors thank you so much for watching and until next time

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%