Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Inflation will rise

The window it was checked over

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

growth, that increases the odds of a recession. Bank of America also released a study that shows if real wage growth is negative until the summer of this year, the odds of a recession would increase substantially. This is because when you notice that your income is going down, you say, "Wait a minute, even though I got a pay raise, I'm still spending way more money than I used to. I better cut back and start saving." Anytime you cut back spending, you contribute to the slowed growth of the economy. Also, banks have finally admitted that inflation will probably be high this year, high enough to outpace wage growth, which means the real wage growth will probably again this year be negative. Now, the truth is wage growth and inflation by themselves can't predict a recession, but they're still a risk, so I'll add another 10% to our recession total. And the fourth thing that can predict a recession is a shock to commodity prices. This is kind of crazy, but history shows us anytime the price of a commodity like oil goes up above its average, the higher the likelihood of a recession is. Now, the word to remember here is something called Brent crude oil. Brent crude oil is a light crude oil, which

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.