Andrei Jikh, dẫn lời nguồn khác: Lạm phát sẽ tăng

Khung thời gian được kiểm chứng

Chỉ số giá tiêu dùng (CPI): Cục Thống kê Lao động Mỹ (BLS), qua FRED, số liệu công bố lần đầu. Vùng tô là khung thời gian được kiểm chứng; vùng xám là các giai đoạn suy thoái.

Ngữ cảnh xung quanh

growth, that increases the odds of a recession. Bank of America also released a study that shows if real wage growth is negative until the summer of this year, the odds of a recession would increase substantially. This is because when you notice that your income is going down, you say, "Wait a minute, even though I got a pay raise, I'm still spending way more money than I used to. I better cut back and start saving." Anytime you cut back spending, you contribute to the slowed growth of the economy. Also, banks have finally admitted that inflation will probably be high this year, high enough to outpace wage growth, which means the real wage growth will probably again this year be negative. Now, the truth is wage growth and inflation by themselves can't predict a recession, but they're still a risk, so I'll add another 10% to our recession total. And the fourth thing that can predict a recession is a shock to commodity prices. This is kind of crazy, but history shows us anytime the price of a commodity like oil goes up above its average, the higher the likelihood of a recession is. Now, the word to remember here is something called Brent crude oil. Brent crude oil is a light crude oil, which

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