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Graham Stephan: Inflation will rise

Said on Aug 7, 2020, at 9:36 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the expectation is that long term once the economy begins opening back up people are going to begin spending money again and with so much money loaded into the economy that might cause inflation to rise too quickly too soon”
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PredictionInflationwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

1.32%

Aug 7, 2020

Reading at close

5.13%

Aug 7, 2021

Change

+3.81 pp

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 5.13% at Aug 7, 2021, a change of +3.81 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Within band

180 days

Within band

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%201720182019202020212021Said on Aug 7, 2020
−2%0%2%4%6%8%2017201920202021Said on Aug 7, 2020

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.32%1.5%Sep 6, 2020+0.18 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.32%1.12%Nov 5, 2020−0.20 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band1.32%1.59%Feb 3, 2021+0.27 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.32%5.13%Aug 7, 2021+3.81 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.32%3.6%Aug 7, 2023+2.28 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct1.32%2.94%Aug 6, 2025+1.62 pp—
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 1.50% at Sep 6, 2020, a change of +0.18 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 1.12% at Nov 5, 2020, a change of −0.20 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 1.59% at Feb 3, 2021, a change of +0.27 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 5.13% at Aug 7, 2021, a change of +3.81 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 7, 2023, a change of +2.28 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Inflation stood at 1.32% at the start of the window and 2.94% at Aug 6, 2025, a change of +1.62 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

What was said around it

you and i and what we could do about it the answer isn't exactly easy to come up with in the short term deflation could very well happen because businesses are shut down people are not spending money and no matter how much money the fed injects into the economy there needs to be a viable way for people to spend it otherwise there's not going to be inflation or if you have nowhere to spend it so you just invest the money instead then all of a sudden the investments rise in value however the expectation is that long term once the economy begins opening back up people are going to begin spending money again and with so much money loaded into the economy that might cause inflation to rise too quickly too soon many people also theorize that inflation is happening right now before our very eyes just not in the way that you think even though core inflation was only 1.2 percent recently and the food prices have increased four and a half percent assets like stocks real estate and precious metals have seen an incredible surge between march and today that leads people to think that maybe inflation is happening right now but the inflation we're seeing isn't in goods and services it's in investments

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed