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Graham Stephan: Inflation will fall

Said on Aug 17, 2022, at 8:16 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“in a way this is how the federal reserve could finally tame inflation and with less money chasing a higher quantity of goods prices can finally begin to decrease”
Watch at 8:16Getting Fired | Why 20% Of Workers Could Lose Their Job
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

8.28%

Aug 17, 2022

Reading at close

3.6%

Aug 17, 2023

Change

−4.68 pp

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 17, 2023, a change of −4.68 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%201920202021202220232023Said on Aug 17, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2019202120222023Said on Aug 17, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band8.28%8.25%Sep 16, 2022−0.03 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%6.98%Nov 15, 2022−1.30 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%6.15%Feb 13, 2023−2.13 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%3.6%Aug 17, 2023−4.68 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct8.28%2.94%Aug 16, 2025−5.34 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Aug 16, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 8.25% at Sep 16, 2022, a change of −0.03 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 6.98% at Nov 15, 2022, a change of −1.30 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 6.15% at Feb 13, 2023, a change of −2.13 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Aug 17, 2023, a change of −4.68 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 8.28% at the start of the window and 2.94% at Aug 16, 2025, a change of −5.34 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 16, 2027.

What was said around it

what's happening here from my perspective this appears to be the time where businesses are trimming the fat optimizing their workforce adjusting to shifting conditions and making sure that they're in the best place possible to post a profit and unfortunately that comes at the cost of their employees for shareholders this actually seems to be celebrated because this would boost the company's bottom line but for the employees this seems to be a survival of the fittest mentality where only the top talent is able to stay in a way this is how the federal reserve could finally tame inflation and with less money chasing a higher quantity of goods prices can finally begin to decrease this also explains why unemployment is always so low at the peak of the market with loose monetary policy that allows businesses to over expand and then as soon as that reverses unemployment skyrockets back up this also applies to spending where in this case inflation needs to be considered and when that's factored in you can actually see a net decline as early as may of this year from that it's no wonder the businesses are preemptively laying off their workforce and preparing for a time where maybe they will need

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed