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Joseph Carlson: Inflation will fall

Said on Dec 14, 2022, at 11:30 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I think that inflation is coming down steadily I've been on the side where I think inflation is coming down steadily for a long period of time and I think eventually the FED will have to Pivot”
Watch at 11:30Why The Fed Keeps Killing The Market Rally
PredictionInflationwill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

6.4%

Dec 14, 2022

Reading at close

3.6%

Dec 14, 2023

Change

−2.79 pp

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Dec 14, 2023, a change of −2.79 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

30 days

Within band

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

InflationWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%8%10%202020202021202220232024Said on Dec 14, 2022
−5%0%5%10%2020202120222024Said on Dec 14, 2022

Consumer price index (CPI): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Within band6.4%6.6%Jan 13, 2023+0.20 pp—
90 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.4%4.9%Mar 14, 2023−1.49 pp—
180 daysR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.4%2.88%Jun 12, 2023−3.51 pp—
1 yearR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.4%3.6%Dec 14, 2023−2.79 pp—
3 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Correct6.4%2.63%Dec 13, 2025−3.77 pp—
5 yearsR-MACRO-LEVEL v4Pending——Dec 13, 2027——
Why: 30 days

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 6.60% at Jan 13, 2023, a change of +0.20 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 90 days

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 4.90% at Mar 14, 2023, a change of −1.49 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 180 days

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 2.88% at Jun 12, 2023, a change of −3.51 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 1 year

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 3.60% at Dec 14, 2023, a change of −2.79 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 3 years

Inflation stood at 6.40% at the start of the window and 2.63% at Dec 13, 2025, a change of −3.77 pp (CPIAUCSL, first releases). The call was that it would fall. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 13, 2027.

What was said around it

data is going to completely dictate what actions they take and Jeremy once again called it the FED did their thing with their 50 basis point interest rate with their hawkish tone with the Dot Plot going way up into the five percentage points and he says that that doesn't matter the data from the actual economy coming out in the next three months is what's going to dictate their policy and not their prognostications about the future so I'm much more inclined to actually believe Jeremy Siegel's take care I think that inflation is coming down steadily I've been on the side where I think inflation is coming down steadily for a long period of time and I think eventually the FED will have to Pivot it'll force their hand inflation is coming down the economy is slowing and they can only hold in restrictive territory for so long until they're forced to ease up so I personally don't believe that the FED is going to end up raising interest rates as much as they're forecasting right now now moving on we have some Tesla news the stock is doing terrible it's down 60 percent year-to-date sixty percent is a massive drop even for a volatile company like Tesla that is a lot Elon Musk was also just recently

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: a call with no clear direction

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028. They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Inflation will rise to 3.6%

“They also expect inflation to remain elevated at 3.6% throughout 2026 before eventually falling back down again.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephana call under review

“First, taxes are going up.”

Jun 1, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephana call with no clear direction

“First, we could see inflation slowly subside and yields come back down on their own, or yields keep going up and eventually the Federal Reserve has to step in.”

May 18, 2026

Not scored

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: Inflation — around 1%

“Goldman Sachs estimates that this would still push inflation up by 1% through mid-2026.”

Apr 20, 2026

Relayed

Coin Bureau, relaying Federal Reserve: Inflation will fall to 2.7%

“the Federal Reserve's   recent summary of economic projections insists  that inflation will magically settle at just   2.7% over the exact same time frame.”

Apr 9, 2026

Relayed