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Graham Stephan: SPY will rise

Said on Oct 26, 2020, at 10:28 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“historically the market has shown that long term it's going to continue going up”
Watch at 10:28My Thoughts On The Stock Market Collapse
PredictionSPYwill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

Recorded as the market, a word for a group: this call is judged on SPY, the stand-in the method assigns to it.

What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Entry price (first close after the video)

$338.22

Oct 27, 2020

Price at close

$455.96

Oct 26, 2021

Total return, dividends included

+36.7%

SPY closed at $338.22 on Oct 27, 2020. On Oct 26, 2021 it closed at $455.96, a total return of +36.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

SPYWindow checked
$250$300$350$400$450$500Apr 2020Aug 2020Dec 2020Apr 2021Aug 2021Dec 2021Said on Oct 26, 2020
$250$300$350$400$450$500Apr 2020Nov 2020Jun 2021Dec 2021Said on Oct 26, 2020

SPY closing prices, adjusted for splits. The shaded span is the one-year window: it starts at the first close after the video went public and ends at the last close on or before one year after the day the video was published.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-DIR v4Correct$338.22Oct 27, 2020$362.66Nov 25, 2020+7.2%Total return, dividends included—
90 daysR-DIR v4Correct$338.22Oct 27, 2020$382.88Jan 22, 2021+13.7%Total return, dividends included—
180 daysR-DIR v4Correct$338.22Oct 27, 2020$416.74Apr 23, 2021+24.1%Total return, dividends included—
1 yearR-DIR v4Correct$338.22Oct 27, 2020$455.96Oct 26, 2021+36.7%Total return, dividends included—
3 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$338.22Oct 27, 2020$412.55Oct 26, 2023+27.5%Total return, dividends included—
5 yearsR-DIR v4Correct$338.22Oct 27, 2020$677.25Oct 24, 2025+114.8%Total return, dividends included—
Why: 30 days

SPY closed at $338.22 on Oct 27, 2020. On Nov 25, 2020 it closed at $362.66, a total return of +7.2% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 90 days

SPY closed at $338.22 on Oct 27, 2020. On Jan 22, 2021 it closed at $382.88, a total return of +13.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 180 days

SPY closed at $338.22 on Oct 27, 2020. On Apr 23, 2021 it closed at $416.74, a total return of +24.1% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 1 year

SPY closed at $338.22 on Oct 27, 2020. On Oct 26, 2021 it closed at $455.96, a total return of +36.7% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 3 years

SPY closed at $338.22 on Oct 27, 2020. On Oct 26, 2023 it closed at $412.55, a total return of +27.5% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

Why: 5 years

SPY closed at $338.22 on Oct 27, 2020. On Oct 24, 2025 it closed at $677.25, a total return of +114.8% (dividends included). The call was that it would rise.

What was said around it

when things go down likewise if you're looking to refinance or buy a home you take the risk that interest rates might be going up by the time you're ready to do that i'm a firm believer that you should only buy real estate that you intend to hold long term with a price that you could comfortably afford regardless of what happens so if you have a chance to find that right home and lock in a low interest rate i would go for it knowing that whatever the price is in the short term doesn't really make much of a difference and listen regardless of what happens historically the market has shown that long term it's going to continue going up this article from forbes breaks down the returns from each president since 1926 and as you can see the chart is always going up decade over decade so in terms of what you could do about this number one you could smash the like button for the youtube algorithm two you could do your best to budget and cut back on unnecessary spending so you have more money left over to save three you could continue reinvesting back into the markets week after week regardless of what happens four you could continue to learn and educate yourself on the aspects of personal finance

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham StephanSPYwill outperform

“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”

Sep 9, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham Stephan, relaying Fidelity: SPY will rise

“Fidelity thinks that this is just the very beginning and the markets will continue going higher because of AI.”

Aug 25, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhSPYwill fall

“However, before the United States returns to the big print, the markets can continue going down.”

Aug 5, 2026 · after 30 days

Within band so far · 30 days+0.2%

Graham Stephan, relaying Morgan Stanley: SPY will rise

“On top of that, Morgan Stanley also believes 500 is going to rise this year, ending at 7,800. Citibank sees 7,700, and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo see a relatively flat market for these next few months.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying Goldman Sachs: SPY will rise

“Goldman Sachs just raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,600, which implies solid upside from where we are today.”

Jul 27, 2026

Relayed

Graham StephanSPYwill fall

“Historically, when the savings rate reaches an absolute low like this, the stock market tends to suffer in the years following. Now, I'm not saying that's a guarantee, but it's something at least worth considering.”

Jun 25, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days+5.6%